The Ethical Skeptic

Challenging Pseudo-Skepticism, Institutional Propaganda and Cultivated Ignorance

Poser Science: Proof Gaming

Science begins its work based upon a principle called necessity, not upon proof. Science then establishes proof, if such can be had. Popper critical rationality as it turns out, involves more than irrefutable proof, contrary to what gaming social skeptics might contend. Proof Gaming is a method of tendering an affectation of sciencey methodology, yet still effectively obfuscating research and enforcing acceptable thought.

im-a-skeptic-burden-of-proofIn order for science to begin to prove the existence of the strange animal tens of thousands of credible persons report roaming in the woods, I must first bring in its dead carcass.  But if I bring in its dead body, then I have no need for science to examine that such an animal exists in the first place; I have already done the science.  The demand that I bring in a dead body, given a sufficient level of Ockham’s Razor necessity-driving information, is a false standard threshold for science to begin its diligence, and such a demand constitutes pseudoscience.

Now of course, Karl Popper in his brief entitled Die beiden Grundprobleme der Erkenntnistheorie contended that science should be demarcated by the proper assignment of truth values to its assertions, or ‘sentences’: ergo, science is the set of sentences with justifiably assigned truth values.¹ This was called a mindset of ‘critical rationality’.¹ It was a step above simple scientific skepticism. The task of the philosophy of science is to explain suitable methods by which these assignments are then properly made.¹ However, one can extend the philosophy of science to construct elaborate methods, which prevent the assimilation of ideas or research which one disfavors, by gaming these methods such that philosophy stands and acts in lieu of science. One such trick of conducting science research by means of solely philosophy, all from the comfort of one’s arm chair, is called Proof Gaming. Popper contended later in his work, as outlined by the Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy here:

As a consequence of these three difficulties [the problem or necessity of induction] Popper developed an entirely different theory of science in chapter 5, then in Logik der Forschung. In order to overcome the problems his first view faced, he adopted two central strategies. First, he reformulated the task of the philosophy of science. Rather than presenting scientific method as a tool for properly assigning truth values to sentences, he presented rules of scientific method as conducive to the growth of knowledge. Apparently he still held that only proven or refuted sentences could take truth values. But this view is incompatible with his new philosophy of science as it appears in his Logik der Forschung: there he had to presume that some non-refuted theories took truth values, that is, that they are true or false as the case may be, even though they have been neither proved nor refuted [William of Ockham’s ‘plurality’]. It is the job of scientists to discover their falsity when they can. (IEoP)¹

Social skeptics will cite the base logic of Popper’s first work, yet omit his continued work on induction (Logik der Forschung) – as a process of sleight-of-hand in argument. So, critical rationality as it turns out, involves more than irrefutable proof, contrary to what gaming social skeptics might contend. Science begins its work based upon a principle called necessity, not upon proof. Science then establishes proof, if such can be had. Sadly, much of science cannot be adjudicated on anything like what we would call iron-clad proof, and instead relies upon a combination of falsified antithetical alternatives or induction based consilience.

The gaming of this reality constitutes a process of obfuscation and deceit called Proof Gaming. Proof Gaming is the process of employing dilettante concepts of ‘proof’ as a football in order to win arguments, disfavor disliked groups or thought, or exercise fake versions or standards of science. Proof gaming presents itself in six speciations. In the presence of sufficient information or Ockham’s Razor plurality, such tactics as outlined below, constitute a game of pseudoscience. Posing the appearance of science-sounding methods, yet still enabling obfuscation and a departure from the scientific method in order to protect the religious ideas one adopted at an early age.

Let’s examine the six types of this common social skeptic bad science method, formal and informal fallacy.

Proof Gaming

/philosophy : argument : pseudoscience : false salience/ : employing dilettante concepts of ‘proof’ as a football in order to win arguments, disfavor disliked groups or thought, or exercise fake versions of science. Proof gaming presents itself in six speciations:

Catch 22 (non rectum agitur fallacy) – the pseudoscience of forcing the proponent of a construct or observation, to immediately and definitively skip to the end of the scientific method and single-handedly prove their contention, circumventing all other steps of the scientific method and any aid of science therein; this monumental achievement prerequisite before the contention would ostensibly be allowed to be considered by science in the first place. Backwards scientific method and skipping of the plurality and critical work content steps of science.

Fictitious Burden of Proof – declaring a ‘burden of proof’ to exist when such an assertion is not salient under science method at all. A burden of proof cannot possibly exist if neither the null hypothesis or alternative theories nor any proposed construct possesses a Popper sufficient testable/observable/discernible/measurable mechanism; nor moreover, if the subject in the matter of ‘proof’ bears no Wittgenstein sufficient definition in the first place (such as the terms ‘god’ or ‘nothingness’).

Herculean Burden of Proof – placing a ‘burden of proof’ upon an opponent which is either arguing from ignorance (asking to prove absence), not relevant to science or not inside the relevant range of achievable scientific endeavor in the first place. Assigning a burden of proof which cannot possibly be provided/resolved by a human being inside our current state of technology or sophistication of thought/knowledge (such as ‘prove abiogenesis’ or ‘prove that only the material exists’). Asking someone to prove an absence proposition (such as ‘prove elves do not exist’).

Fictus Scientia – assigning to disfavored ideas, a burden of proof which is far in excess of the standard regarded for acceptance or even due consideration inside science methods. Similarly, any form of denial of access to acceptance processes normally employed inside science (usually peer review both at theory formulation and at completion). Request for proof as the implied standard of science – while failing to realize or deceiving opponents into failing to realize that 90% of science is not settled by means of ‘proof’ to begin with.

Observation vs Claim Blurring – the false practice of calling an observation or data set, a ‘claim’ on the observers’ part.  This in an effort to subjugate such observations into the category of constituting scientific claims which therefore must be now ‘proved’ or dismissed (the real goal: see Transactional Occam’s Razor Fallacy).  In fact an observation is simply that, a piece of evidence or a cataloged fact. Its false dismissal under the pretense of being deemed a ‘claim’ is a practice of deception and pseudoscience.

As Science as Law Fallacy – conducting science as if it were being reduced inside a court of law or by a judge (usually the one forcing the fake science to begin with), through either declaring a precautionary principle theory to be innocent until proved guilty, or forcing standards of evidence inside a court of law onto hypothesis reduction methodology, when the two processes are conducted differently.

All of these tactics are common practices which abrogate the role and discipline of science.  Additionally, a key set of symptoms to look for, in determining that Proof Gaming is underway, are when

  1. one of these tactics is conducted inside a media spotlight,  and when
  2. every media outlet is reciting the same story, and same one liner such as ‘extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence’, verbatim.

This is an indicator that a campaign is underway to quash a subject.

The sad reality is, that on most tough issues, any one single person or small group of outsiders is poorly equipped to prove a subject beyond question. Popper recognized this later in his life work.  We simply do not have the resources and time to accomplish such a task.  SSkeptics know this and use it to their advantage.  The people who are calling for research for example on the connection between cognitive delays in children and the potential role which immunizations have had on this, are simply asking for science to do the research. The response they receive is “You can’t prove the link,” thus we are justified in waging a media campaign against you and scientifically ignoring this issue. This is Proof Gaming.  Complicating this is the fact that the issue is broader than simply MMR and Thimerosal (the majority body of current study), involving the demand for science to research the causes of valid skyrocketing levels of developmental delays, autoimmune disorders, and learning disabilities in our children. The issue bears plurality and precaution, but is answered with ignorance. The Proof Gamers who sling epithets such as “Deniers” and “Anti-vaccinationistas” and “Autistic Moms” are committing scientific treason. One should note that the handiwork of such SSkeptics is rarely characterized by outcomes of value or clarity, is typically destructive and control oriented, and is reliably made media-visible (see our next Poser Science series on the tandem symbiosis between virtue signalling and malevolence).

Hype and name calling has no place in pluralistic research, and the media pundits who commit this are practicing pseudoscience plain and simple. Once plurality has been established, the games should be over.  But not for Proof Gamers.   Attacking proponents who have done case research to call for further science (not proving the subject) for not “proving beyond a shadow of a doubt,” their contentions, is an act of pseudoscience.

This fake demand for proof before research is Proof Gaming, is an abrogation of the Scientific Method and is Pseudoscience.

TES Signature

¹  The Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy, “Karl Popper: Critical Rationalism”;

February 28, 2017 Posted by | Agenda Propaganda, Argument Fallacies, Social Disdain, Tradecraft SSkepticism | , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Discerning Sound from Questionable Science Publication

Non-replicatable meta-analyses published in tier I journals do not constitute the preponderance of good source material available to the more-than-casual researcher. This faulty idea stems from a recently manufactured myth on the part of social skepticism. Accordingly, the life-long researcher must learn techniques beyond the standard pablum pushed by social skeptics; discerning techniques which will afford them a superior ability to tell good science from bad – through more than simply shallow cheat sheets and publication social ranking classifications.
The astute ethical skeptic is very much this life-long and in depth researcher. For him or her, ten specific questions can serve to elucidate this difference inside that highly political, complicated and unfair playing field called science.

the-ten-study-questionsRecently, a question was posed to me by a colleague concerning the ability of everyday people to be able to discern good scientific work from dubious efforts. A guide had been passed around inside her group, a guide which touted itself as a brief on 5 key steps inside a method to pin-point questionable or risky advising publications. The author cautioned appropriately that “This method is not infallible and you must remain cautious, as pseudoscience may still dodge the test.” He failed of course to mention the obvious additional risk possibility that the method could serve to screen science which either 1) is good but cannot possibly muster the credential, funding and backing to catch the attention of crowded major journals, or 2) is valid, however is also screened by power-wielding institutions which could have the resources and connections as well as possible motive to block research on targeted ideas. The article my friend’s group was circulating in consideration constituted nothing but a Pollyanna, wide-eyed and apple pie view of the scientific publication process. One bereft of the scarred knuckles and squint-eyed wisdom requisite in discriminating human motivations and foibles.

There is much more to this business of vetting ideas than simply identifying the bad people and the bad subjects. More than simply crowning the conclusions of ‘never made an observation in my life’ meta-analyses as the new infallible standard of truth.

Scientific organizations are prone to the same levels of corruption, bias, greed, desire to get something for as little input as possible, as is the rest of the population. Many, or hopefully even most, individual scientists buck this mold certainly, and are deserving of utmost respect. However, even their best altruism is checked by organizational practices which seek to ensure that those who crave power, are dealt their more-than-ample share of fortune, fame and friar-hood. They will gladly sacrifice the best of science in this endeavor. And in this context of human wisdom it is critical that we keep watch.

If you are a casual reader of science, say consuming three or four articles a month, then certainly the guidelines outlined by Ariel Poliandri below, in his blog entitled “A guide to detecting bogus scientific journals”, represent a suitable first course on the menu of publishing wisdom.¹ In fact, were I offered this as the basis of a graduate school paper, it would be appropriately and warmly received. But if this is all you had to offer the public after 20 years of hard fought science, I would aver that you had wasted your career therein.

1 – Is the journal a well-established journal such as Nature, Science, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, etc.?
2 – Check authors’ affiliations. Do they work in a respectable University? Or do they claim to work in University of Lala Land or no university at all?
3 – Check the Journal’s speciality and the article’s research topic. Are the people in the journal knowledgeable in the area the article deals with?
4 – Check the claims in the title and summary of the article. Are they reasonable for the journal publishing them?
5 – Do the claims at least make sense?

This list represents simply a non-tenable way to go about vetting your study and resource material so that only pluralistic ignorance influences your knowledge base. It is lazy – sure to be right and safe – useless advisement, to a true researcher. The problem with this list resides inside some very simple industry realities:

1.  ‘Well-established journal’ publication requires sponsorship from a major institution. Scientific American cites that 88% of scientists possess no such sponsorship, and this statistic has nothing to do with the scientific groups’ relative depth in subject field.² So this standard, while useful for the casual reader of science, is not suitable at all for one who spends a lifetime of depth inside a subject. This would include for instance, a person studying impacting factors on autism in their child, or persons researching the effect of various supplements on their health. Not to mention of course, the need to look beyond this small group of publications applies to scientists who spend a life committed to their subject as well.

One will never arrive at truth by tossing out 88% of scientific studies right off the bat.

2.  Most scientists do not work for major universities. Fewer than 15% of scientists ever get to participate in this sector even once in their career.² This again is a shade-of-gray replication of the overly stringent filtering bias recommended in point 1. above. I have employed over 100 scientists and engineers over the years, persons who have collectively produced groundbreaking studies. For the most part, none ever worked for a major university. Perhaps 1 or 2 spent a year inside university affiliated research institutes. Point 2 is simply a naive standard which can only result in filtering out everything with the exception of what one is looking for. One must understand that, in order to survive in academia, one must be incrementally brilliant and not what might be even remotely considered disruptively brash. Academics bask in the idea that their life’s work and prejudices have all panned out to come true. The problem with this King Wears No Clothes process is that it tends to stagnate science, and not provide the genesis of great discovery.

One will never arrive at truth by ignoring 85% of scientists, right off the bat.

3.  There are roles for both specialty journals and generalized journals. There is a reason for this, and it is not to promote pseudoscience as the blog author implies (see statement in first paragraph above). A generalized journal maintains resource peers to whom they issue subject matter for review. They are not claiming peer evaluation to be their sole task. Larger journals can afford this, but not all journals can. Chalk this point up as well up to naivete. Peer review requires field qualification; however in general, journal publication does not necessarily. Sometimes they are one in the same, sometimes not. Again, if this is applied without wisdom, such naive discrimination can result in a process of personal filtering bias, and not stand as a suitable standard identifying acceptable science.

One will never arrive at truth by viewing science as a club. Club quality does not work.

4.  Check for the parallel nature of the question addressed in the article premise, methodology, results, title and conclusion.  Article writers know all about the trick of simply reading abstracts and summaries. They know 98% of readers will only look this far, or will face the requisite $25 to gain access further than the abstract. If the question addressed is not the same throughout, then there could be an issue. As well, check the expository or disclosure section of the study or article. If it consists even in part, of a polemic focusing on the bad people, or the bad ideas, or the bad industry player – then the question addressed in the methodology may have come from bias in the first place. Note: blog writing constitutes this type of writing. A scientific study should be disciplined to the question at hand, be clear on any claims made, and as well any preliminary disclosures which help premise, frame, constrain, or improve the predictive nature of the question. Blogs and articles do not have to do this; however, neither are they scientific studies. Know the difference.

Writers know the trick – that reviewers will only read the summary or abstract. The logical calculus of a study resides below this level. So authors err toward favoring established ideas in abstracts.

5.  Claims make sense with respect to the context in which they are issued and the evidence by which they are backed. Do NOT check to see if you believe the claims or they make some kind of ‘Occam’s Razor’ sense. This is a false standard of ‘I am the science’ pretense taught by false skepticism. Instead, understand what the article is saying and what it is not saying – and avoid judging the article based on whether it says something you happen to like or dislike. We often call this ‘sense’ – and incorrectly so. It is bias.

Applying personal brilliance to filter ideas, brilliance which you learned from only 12% of publication abstracts and 15% of scientists who played the game long enough – is called: gullibility.

It is not that the body of work vetted by such criteria is invalid; rather simply that – to regard science as only this – is short sighted and bears fragility. Instead of these Pollyanna 5 guidelines, the ethical skeptic will choose to understand whether or not the study or article in question is based upon standards of what constitutes good Wittgenstein and Popper science. This type of study can be conducted by private lab or independent researchers too. One can transcend the Pollyanna 5 questions above by asking the ten simple questions regarding any material – and outlined in the graphic at the top of this article. Epoché is exercised by keeping their answers in mind, without prejudice, as onward you may choose to read. Solutions to problems come from all levels and all types of contributors. This understanding constitutes the essence of wise versus naive science.

“Popper holds that there is no unique methodology specific to science. Science, like virtually every other human, and indeed organic, activity, Popper believes, consists largely of problem-solving.”³

There are two types of people, those who wish to solve the problem at hand, and those who already had it solved, so it never was a problem for them to begin with, rather simply an avenue of club agenda expression or profit/career creation.

Let’s be clear here: If you have earned tenure as an academic or journal reviewer or a secure career position which pays you a guaranteed $112,000 a year, from age 35 until the day you retire, this is the same as holding a bank account with $2,300,000 in it at age 35† – even net of the $200,000 you might have invested in school. You are a millionaire. So please do not advertise the idea that scientists are all doing this for the subject matter.

$2.3 million (or more in sponsorship) is sitting there waiting for you to claim it – and all you have to do is say the right things, in the right venues, for long enough.

This process of depending solely on tier I journals – is an exercise in industry congratulationism. There has to be a better way to vet scientific study, …and there is. The following is all about telling which ilk of person is presenting an argument to you.

The Ten Questions Differentiating Good Science from Bad

better-science-1Aside from examining a study’s methodology and logical calculus itself, the following ten questions are what I employ to guide me as to how much agenda and pretense has been inserted into its message or methodology. There are many species of contention; eight in the least if we take the combinations of the three bisected axes in the graph to the right. Twenty four permutations if we take the sequence in which the logic is contended (using falsification to promote an idea versus promoting the idea that something ‘will be falsified under certain constraints’, etc.) In general, what I seek to examine is an assessment of how many ideas the author is seeking to refute or promote, with what type of study, and with what inductive or deductive approach. An author who attempts to dismiss too many competing ideas, via a predictive methodology supporting a surreptitiously promoted antithesis, which cannot possibly evaluate a critical theoretical mechanism – this type of study or article possesses a great likelihood of delivering bad science. Think about the celebrity skeptics you have read. How many competing ideas are they typically looking to discredit inside their material, and via one mechanism of denial (usually an apothegm and not a theoretical mechanism)? The pool comprises 768 items – many to draw from – and draw from this, they do.

Let’s be clear here – a study can pass major journal peer review and possess acceptable procedural/analytical methodology – but say or implicate absolutely nothing for the most part. Ultimately being abused (or abusing its own research in extrapolating its reach) to say things which the logical calculus involved would never support (see Dunning-Kruger Abuse). Such conditions do not mean that the study will be refused peer review. Peer reviewers rarely ever contend (if they disregard the ‘domain of application’ part of a study’s commentary):

“We reject this study because it could be abused in its interpretation by malicious stakeholders.” (See example here:

Just because a study is accepted for and pass peer review, does not mean that all its extrapolations, exaggerations, implications or abuses are therefore true. You, as the reader are the one who must apply the sniff test as to what the study is implying, saying or being abused to say. What helps a reader avoid this? Those same ten questions from above.

null-hypothesisThe ten questions I have found most useful in discerning good science from bad, are formulated based upon the following Popperian four-element premise.² All things being equal, better science is conducted in the case wherein

  • one idea is
  • denied through
  • falsification of its
  • critical theoretical mechanism.

If the author pulls this set of four things off successfully, eschews promotion of ‘the answer’ (which is the congruent context to one having disproved a set of myriad ideas), then the study stands as a challenge to the community and must be sought for replication (see question IX below). For the scientific community at large to ignore such a challenge is the genesis of (our pandemic) pluralistic ignorance.

For instance, in one of the materials research labs I managed, we were tasked by an investment fund and their presiding board to determine the compatibility of titanium to various lattice state effects analogous to iron. The problem exists however in that titanium is not like iron at all. It will not accept the same interstitial relationships with other small atomic radius class elements that iron will (boron, carbon, oxygen, nitrogen). We could not pursue the question the way the board posed it. “Can you screw with titanium in exotic ways to make it more useful to high performance aircraft?”  We first had to reduce the question into a series of salient, then sequitur Bayesian reductions. The first question to falsify was “Titanium maintains its vacancy characteristics at all boundary conditions along the gamma phase state?” Without an answer (falsification) to this single question – not one single other question related to titanium could be answered in any way shape or form. Most skeptics do not grasp this type of critical path inside streams of logical calculus. This is an enormous source of confusion and social ignorance. Even top philosophers and celebrity skeptics fail this single greatest test of skepticism. And they are not held to account because few people are the wiser, and the few who are wise to it – keep quiet to avoid the jackboot ignorance enforced by the Cabal.

Which introduces and opens up the more general question of ‘What indeed, all things being considered, makes for good effective science?” This can be lensed through ten useful questions below, applied in the same fashion as the titanium example case:

I. Has the study or article asked and addressed the 1. relevant and 2. salient and 3. critical path next question under the scientific method?

If it has accomplished this, it is already contending for teir I science, as only a minority of scientists understand how to pose reductive study in this way. If it has not done this then do not even proceed to the next questions II though VII below. Throw the study in the waste can. Snopes is notorious for this type of chicanery. The material is rhetoric, targeting a victim group, idea or person.

If the answer to this is ‘No’ – Stop here and ignore the study. Use it as an example of how not to do science.

II. Did the study or article focus on utilization of a critical theoretical mechanism which it set out to evaluate for validity?

The litmus which differentiates a construct (idea or framework of ideas) from a theory, is that a theory contains a testable and critical theoretical mechanism. ‘God’ does not possess a critical theoretical mechanism, so God is a construct which cannot be measured or tested to any Popperian standard of science. God is not a theory. Even more so, many theories do not possess a testable mechanism, and are simply defaulted to the null hypothesis instead. Be very skeptical of such ‘theories’.

If the answer to this is ‘No’ – Regard the study or article as an opinion piece and not of true scientific incremental value.

III.  Did the study or article attempt to falsify this mechanism, or employ it to make predictions? (z-axis)

Karl Popper outlined that good science involves falsification of alternative ideas or the null hypothesis. However, given that 90% of science cannot be winnowed through falsification alone, it is generally recognized that a theory’s predictive ability can act as a suitable critical theoretical mechanism via which to examine and evaluate. Evolution was accepted through just such a process. In general however, mechanisms which are falsified are regarded as stronger science over successfully predictive mechanisms.

If the study or article sought to falsify a theoretical mechanism – keep reading with maximum focus. If the study used predictive measures – catalog it and look for future publishing on the matter.

IV.  Did the study or article attempt to deny specific idea(s), or did it seek to promote specific idea(s)? (x-axis)

Denial and promotion of ideas is not a discriminating facet inside this issue stand alone. What is significant here is how it interrelates with the other questions. In general attempting to deny multiple ideas or promote a single idea are techniques regarded as less scientific than the approach of denying a single idea – especially if one is able to bring falsification evidence to bear on the critical question and theoretical mechanism.

Simply keep the idea of promotion and denial in mind while you consider all other factors.

V.  Did the study affix its contentions on a single idea, or a group of ideas? (y-axis)

In general, incremental science and most of discovery science work better when a study focuses on one idea for evaluation and not a multiplicity of ideas. This minimizes extrapolation and special pleading loopholes or ignorance. Both deleterious implications for a study. Prefer authors who study single ideas over authors who try and make evaluations upon multiple ideas at once. The latter task is not a wise undertaking even in the instance where special pleading can theoretically be minimized.

If your study author is attempting to tackle the job of denying multiple ideas all at once – then the methodical cynicism alarm should go off. Be very skeptical.

VI.  What percent of the material was allocated towards ideas versus the more agenda oriented topics of persons, events or groups?

If the article or study spends more than 10% of its Background material focused on persons, events or groups it disagrees with, throw the study in the trash. If any other section contains such material above 0%, then the study should be discarded as well. Elanor Roosevelt is credited with the apothegm “Great minds discuss ideas; Average minds discuss events; Small minds discuss people.”

Take your science only from great minds focusing on ideas and not events or persons.

As well, if the author broaches a significant amount of related but irrelevant or non-salient to the question at hand material, you may be witnessing an obdurate, polemic or ingens vanitatum argument. Do not trust a study or article where the author appears to be demonstrating how much of an expert they are in the matter (through addressing related but irrelevant and non-salient or non-sequitur material). This is irrelevant and you should be very skeptical of such publications.

VII. Did the author put an idea, prediction or construct at risk in their study?

Fake science promoters always stay inside well established lines of social safety, so that they are 1) Never found wrong, 2) Don’t bring the wrong type of attention to themselves (remember the $2.6+ million which is at stake here), and 3) Can imply their personal authority inside their club as an opponent-inferred appeal in arguing. They always repeat the correct apothegm, and always come to the correct conclusion. The will make a habit of taunting those with redaction.

Advancing science always involves some sort of risk. Do not consider those who choose paths of safety, familiarity and implied authority to possess any understanding of science.

VIII.  Was the study? (In order of increasing gravitas)

1.  increasing-gravitasPsychology or Motivation (Pseudo-Theory – Explains Everything)

2.  Meta-Data – Studies of Studies (Indirect Data Only vulnerable to Simpson’s Paradox or Filtering/Interpretive Bias)

3.  Data – Cohort and Set Measures (Direct but still Data Only)

4.  Direct Measurement Observation (Direct Confirmation)

5.  Inductive Consilience Establishment (Preponderance of Evidence from Multiple Channels/Sources)

6.  Deductive Case Falsification (Smoking Gun)

All it takes in order to have a strong study is one solid falsifying observation. This is the same principle as is embodied inside the apothegm ‘It only takes one white crow, to falsify the idea that all crows are black’.

IX.  When the only viable next salient and sequitur reductive step, post study – is to replicate the results – then you know you have a strong argument inside that work.

X.  Big data and meta-analysis studies like to intimidate participants in the scientific method with the implicit taunt “I’m too big to replicate, bring consensus now.”

These questions, more than anything else – will allow the ethical skeptic to begin to grasp what is reliable science and what is questionable science. Especially in the context where one can no longer afford to dwell inside only the lofty 5% of the highest regarded publications or can no longer stomach the shallow talking point sheets of social skepticism – all of which serve only to ignore or give short shrift to the ideas to which one has dedicated their life in study.

TES Signature

¹  Poliandri, Ariel; “A guide to detecting bogus scientific journals”; Sci – Phy, May 12, 2013;

²  Beryl Lieff Benderly, “Does the US Produce Too Many Scientists?; Scientific American, February 22, 2010;

³  Thornton, Stephen, “Karl Popper”, The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Winter 2016 Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.), URL = <;

†  Present Value of future cash flows with zero ending balance: 456 payments of $9,333 per month at .25% interest per payment period.

February 25, 2017 Posted by | Agenda Propaganda, Social Disdain | , , | Leave a comment

The Ten Indicators of Methodical Genocide

Some people claim that there is a war on science. Well there is a war – but it is not against science.

The war in play today is a continuation of mankind’s bloodthirsty 375,000 year legacy. Our habit is genocide. Our intelligence, only its excuser. We simply now use science as an apologetic in its execution. Philosophy is that set of fundamental absolutes, the stones upon which we can stand in order to further execute science and governance. Today we have lost these principles, in favor of the mindset of malevolent control; anathema to the founding principle of a government, which is:

“We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all men are created equal; that they are endowed by their creator with inherent and certain inalienable rights; that among these are life, liberty, & the pursuit of happiness: that to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed; that whenever any form of government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or abolish it, & to institute new government, laying it’s foundation on such principles, & organizing it’s powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety & happiness.”¹

The Ten Indicators of Genocide Focused Slavery

1.  More than 50% of your work generated income is transferred to benefit others who choose not to work (free income, housing, transportation, food, recreation, insurance, education, medical and college) and to pay for the extensive administration overhead to manage and promote this lifestyle.

2.  90+% of your food, against your will, is hormone/antibiotics infused, highly genetically changed, and contains unmonitored chronic profit-disease symbiosis generating toxic agents. You are not allowed to either know about this nor have any choice in the resulting food consumption.

3.  You suffer from 2 or more chronic diseases that reduce quality of life/longevity and cost significant income to mitigate or maintain. No cause or cure is researched and authorities appear to get upset or create a new regulation every time a curative or causative research, or an inexpensive supplement approach, is broached in any way.

4.  You are not allowed a secure home country. Only certain races are allowed to immigrate. Oppressive religions/government philosophies are promoted as a right. Hate crimes can only be committed against everyone, except for those in your culture.

5.  You are forced to have injected – manifold doses of agents which serve to harm your genetic group’s cognitive ability or critical body systems at an early age. You are not allowed education or employment if you do not comply.

6.  You must ask permission from external third parties to have, or illegally pay to have, sex. Your children burden your household with the full inflationary cost of being raised, while others are taken care of by the state for free.

7.  Your daily activities are monitored 24 hours. Your money flow is monitored 100%. Moving about on your own is prohibited or expensive.

8.  Your voice cannot be heard because all its channels of expression have been deemed illegitimate and decried/squelched by dumb-groomed power enforcing media.

9.  Governments can generate money for free, and use it pay to enforce the mechanisms above, use your kids to fight its series of never-ending wars, yet never resolve the actual items above themselves – as that is your burden alone – and then finally to educate your children that their genocide/extinction is somehow just.

10.  Monitoring teams are deployed throughout culture to deride, mock and punish you should you step out of line in either your expression about or compliance with the above.

One of the tenets of ethical skepticism is to recognize that this set of affairs is a natural tendency on the part of unaccountable mankind – and to seek to stand in the gap for the oppressed. Documenting the methods of those who seek to harm others in the name of philosophy, science or justice.

And of course, calling out those who cluelessly misconstrue philosophy and science in the process of performing step 10.

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November 24, 2016 Posted by | Institutional Mandates, Social Disdain | , , | Leave a comment

The Warning Indicators of Stacked Provisional Knowledge

Rather than presume as capstone upon incredibly risk-ignorant stacks of knowledge, what is true and not true, the ethical skeptic instead focuses on field observation and the suspension of doubt, belief and provisionally stacked assumption. He is not denying knowledge, rather denying the lie-spinner the raw material he so desperately needs. He is denying the tradecraft of the lie: an Omega Hypothesis. A condition wherein the conclusions themselves become more important than the process of knowledge development.

In the previous blog post we discussed the Riddle of Skepticism and a thing called the Tradecraft of the Lie. Inside this precept we are made sensitive to the role which machinated doubt, belief and ignorance of provisionally stacked risk play inside grand fantasies posed as representing (pluralistic ignorance) accepted scientific thinking. Several warning signs can be monitored to watch for such a condition wherein, social forces are seeking to promote an idea (The Omega Hypothesis) in such a fashion as to block further study and end the scientific discourse. In the process of doing so, these same forces will speak often about ‘evidence’, ‘study’ and ‘science’. Of course evidence, study and science are the foundation of our knowledge development process. But simply because one proclaims such words, does not mean therefore that their proclaimant actually understands nor represents science.

The Tower Which Cannot Be Touched – At All Costs

Below I have employed the analogy of a Jenga blocks game as illustrative of the principles comparing ideal science, the reality of fake knowledge posing as science and how its proponents undertake pseuodoscience (pretend method/action – and NOT a subject) in an effort to block competing ideas.  A shaky tower cannot be touched, at all costs. Therefore any method of obfuscating competing ideas becomes part of the ‘stack’ of provision afforded the Omega Hypothesis. The job of fake skepticism is to ensure that no competing idea nor unauthorized entity ever touches the shaky tower of blocks. As well, to ensure that the resource and obfuscation gaps inside the Embargo Hypothesis (on the right below), the Hypothesis which gets them angry – that those gaps are never addressed by science. That the question of the Embargo Hypothesis can never be raised in serious scientific discussion – at cost of severe career penalty. (Click to enlarge)

Verisimilitude Versus Field Observation

This principle is underpinned by key Karl Popper philosophy as outlined inside The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy:¹

In the view of many social scientists, the more probable a theory is, the better it is, and if we have to choose between two theories which are equally strong in terms of their explanatory power, and differ only in that one is probable and the other is improbable, then we should choose the former. Popper rejects this. Science, or to be precise, the working scientist, is interested, in Popper’s view, in theories with a high informative content, because such theories possess a high predictive power and are consequently highly testable. But if this is true, Popper argues, then, paradoxical as it may sound, the more improbable a theory is the better it is scientifically, because the probability and informative content of a theory vary inversely—the higher the informative content of a theory the lower will be its probability, for the more information a statement contains, the greater will be the number of ways in which it may turn out to be false. Thus the statements which are of special interest to the scientist are those with a high informative content and (consequentially) a low probability, which nevertheless come close to the truth.¹

In contrast, you will note that it is the job of the provisional knowledge proponent, to seek out stacks of most probable conclusion. Information which

  1. Is not evaluated in terms of increasing risk-chain dependency
  2. Is not informative because it is probable; nor tolerates competing falsification work to be undertaken
  3. Cannot be assailed because of its probable superiority and critical basis for other arguments.

The key here being that as the stack of knowledge gets increasingly higher, even so more powerful become the standing 3 features above. So powerful in fact, that the conclusions themselves become more important than the process of knowledge development. This is how an Omega Hypothesis works – it must be protected at all costs, in order to not upset its multiple and tall stacks of provision. This is the job of Social Skepticism, to protect these stacks – the money, power, tenure and religious interweaving from which multiple arguments extend and thrive. This can be seen in the contrast of verisimilitude and consilience, two differing approaches to the establishment of hypothesis gravitas inside the scientific community.

A final distinguishing factor is this. While consilience is not finished science, rather an important step along the way in developing a hypothesis or understanding, sadly often verisimilitude is non-expertly regarded conveniently as finished science by fake skeptics.  This is the reason why doubt, belief and stacks of provisional knowledge are eschewed by the ethical skeptic.

Sculptured Narrative

/philosophy : pseudoscience : method/ : a social declaration which fits a predetermined agenda, purported to be of ‘weight of evidence’ and science in origin. However, in reality stems more from only the removal/ignoring of the majority or plurality of available or ascertainable evidence, in order to sculpt a conclusion which was sought before research ever began (see Wittgenstein sinnlos Skulptur Mechanism). Conducting science by dwelling only in the statistical and meta-analytical domains while excising all data which does not fit the social narrative of funding entities, large corporations or sskeptic organizations. Refusing to conduct direct studies, publishing studies which contain an inversion effect and filtering of countermanding studies out by attacking journals, authors and ignoring large bodies of evidence, consilience or falsification opportunity.

Verisimilitude (Unity of Knowledge Error)

The Omega Hypothesis:  A provisionally stacked basis supporting an apparent simple reality

/philosophy : pseudoscience : method/ : an argument establishing a screen of partially correct information employed to create an illusion of scientifically accurate conclusion. The acceptance of specific assumptions and principles, crafted in such a fashion as to lead to a therefore simple resulting explanatory conclusion.


A dynamic enhancement of measure, observation and analysis increasingly promoting a single coherent idea

/philosophy : science : method : induction/ : is the nature or characteristic of an argument wherein its underpinning premises, data, multiple associated disciplines, avenues of research or predicates provide for independent but mutual reinforcement of its conclusion.

The Embargo Hypothesis (Hξ)

The hypothesis which must be dismissed without science because it threatens simplicity and verisimilitude

/philosophy : pseudoscience : method/ : a disfavored hypothesis which will never be afforded access to science or the scientific method no matter what level of consilience is attained. An idea which threatens to expose the risk linkages inside of or falsify a stack of protected provisional knowledge which has achieved an importance greater than science itself: an Omega Hypothesis.

Consilience is not finished science, nor does consilience stand as consensus. You will find fake skeptics conflating and twisting the two terms in order to support provisional knowledge they wish to enforce. However consilience does stand as a principal threat to those wishing to protect an agenda of verisimilitude. The Embargo Hypothesis on the other hand, is typically an elegant yet ignored robust and cogent theory. One which threatens power, tenure and money. It will never see the light of a scientific day, no matter how much consilience is developed.

Several Key Warning Signs to Look For Indicating an Omega Hypothesis at Play

A.  Mixing up the steps of or using only a portion of the scientific method

B.  Becoming irritated at calls for further competing study

C.  Over-using the term ‘settled science’ or ‘evidence’ in pluralistic debate

D.  Applying social pressure and club conclusions – feigned as ‘promoting scientific literacy’

E.  Liberal use of the prefix ‘Anti’

F.  Identifying enemies and pigeon-hole bifurcating an argument

G.  Becoming threatened by specific alternatives – calling them magic, pseudoscience, conspiracy or irrational

H.  Relying on scant, outdated or Big-Data only study

I.  Employing celebrity, journalism, funding, influence or authority (see Kilkenny’s Law) to intimidate

J.  Claiming their stack of provisional argument results from a principle of doubt and/or skepticism

K.  A complete ignorance of favored hypothesis limitations and risk.

Several Filtering Techniques Employed to Block The Embargo Hypothesis

And finally, whenever you observe the practices cited above, at play inside the methods of science employed to craft a stack of provisional knowledge and/or enforce an embargo of an eschewed but competing alternative – watch for the following filtering methods. A short definition is provided below with each.

Amplanecdote – so many observations are discarded as anecdote, that an entire science can be assembled around them

Filbert’s Law – relying solely upon single big-data, large domain or arm’s length inexpert meta-analysis to underpin a conclusion

Correlation Dismissal – assuming that all correlation is invalid and instead demanding proof as a first step in science

Effect Inversion – when the reverse question is asked inside an apparently non-significant signal data set, the opposite effect (‘curative’) shows up as a statistically significant signal

Procrustean Solution – further and further study is either modified or thrown out in order to not conflict with the current paradigm

Forward Problem Blindness – the reverse question is never asked or only predictive science is employed and falsification remains unused, despite its availability

Ignoro Eventum – failure to conduct follow-on/impact study or observe an impacted population after a major environmental change has been implemented

Ascertainment Bias – a form of inclusion or exclusion criteria error where the mechanism of sampling, specimen selection, data screening or sub-population selection is inherently flawed

MiHoDeAL Filtering – resorting too often to disposition unliked observations as Misidentification, Hoaxes, Delusions, Anecdotes and Lies

Law of Static Privation – does the provisionally stacked knowledge have a track record of improving further knowledge or alleviating suffering? – if not, it is a provisional stack

Existential Fallacy of Data – the implication or contention that there is an absence of observation or data supporting an idea, when in fact no observational study at all, or of any serious import has been conducted by science on the topic at hand

Shevel’s Inconsistency – one simultaneously contends that science has shown a research subject to be invalid, yet at the same time chooses to designate any research into that subject as constituting pseudoscience

Manipulative Rational Ignorance – an arguer contends rational ignorance applies inside an argument, or the ignoring of a pathway of science because the cost or effort entailed is too high versus the results or lack thereof to be obtained

Furtive Fallacy – undesired data and observations are asserted to have been caused by the malfeasance of researchers or laymen

Fallacy of Relative Privation – science is only the property of scientists. Dismissing an avenue of research due its waste of scientists’ time and focus

Semmelweis Reflex – the tendency to reject new evidence that contradicts one’s held paradigm

Furtive Confidence Fallacy – refusal to estimate, grasp or apply principles of statistical confidence to collected data. The act of prematurely declaring or doggedly denying a multiplicity of anecdote to be equal to data

Muta-Analysis/Studium a Studia – arm’s length, big data, studies-of-studies conducted by 3 year or less experienced analysts, presided over by money influenced directors

Dismissible Margin Fallacy – ensuring that the dissenting real experts and outlier data in a study field are of sufficiently low percentage that they can be ignored (typically cited as <5%)

Consilience Evasion – the refusal to look at a body of growing consilience in an effort to deny a disliked alternative any access to science

Hume’s Razor Error – the false presumption that a seemingly miraculous explanation is assumed to be false if any alternative explanation provided is less miraculous

Sponsorship Bias – rejection of an entire methodological basis of a scientific argument and all its underpinning data and experimental history simply because one can point to a bad personality involved in the subject

Regressive Bias – a certain state of mind wherein perceived high likelihoods are overestimated while perceived low likelihoods are underestimated

Observer Expectancy Effect – when a researcher expects a given result and therefore unconsciously manipulates an experiment or scientific method or misinterprets data in order to find that expected result

False Stickiness/Consensus – false belief that, or willingness to acceptance the claim that, scientists are all in agreement a given subject

Reactive Dissonance – when faced with a challenging observation, study or experiment outcome, to immediately set aside rational data collection, hypothesis reduction and scientific method protocols in favor of crafting a means to dismiss the observation

Unity of Knowledge Error – to conflate and promote consilience as consensus, in absence of having diligently falsified or even studied any competing hypothesis

All of these may be found in the Glossary or Tree of Knowledge Obfuscation Pages of this blog.

TES Signature

¹  Thornton, Stephen, “Karl Popper”, The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Winter 2015 Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.), URL = <;.

August 24, 2016 Posted by | Agenda Propaganda, Argument Fallacies, Social Disdain | , , , | Leave a comment

The Joy of Sleight-of-Hand Manipulation

The magician finds his joy in misleading through distraction and by means of a consilience of evidence lay down as predicate to the observation his audience is about to make. But the magician is operating under a license granted by his audience. The audience agrees to be deceived and to allow sleight-of-hand to unfold as a sort of play. The magician is not held accountable for his act, and rather entertains by challenging his observers to see if they can spot the trick.
In the mind of some, this joy of deception has utility well beyond the play of the magician.

Why Humans LieRebecca Newberger Goldstein, 2014 National Humanities Medalist and author of Plato at the Googleplex, contends correctly that philosophy is the social and cognitive process of “maximizing our coherence.” At a first layer of logic the enemy of philosophy, therefore, is the lie.

But is this indeed the reality? Or rather, is the lie a most cleverly disguised bedfellow of philosophy? Pablo Picasso has been attributed the saying “Art is the lie that enables us to realize the truth.” Philosophy is an art, which segues our path into the sciences. However it is not the act of creating a lie to which I refer to herein, rather it is the latent leveragability of an existing one.

I learned during my days in Intelligence that a lie can serve to be very informative, once one gains a foothold of understanding even one rung higher than the lie itself. So much is learned from a lie after all. Not simply the resolution of an incorrect fact; rather the whole realm of the lie infrastructure, its fabric, approach, its society, structure and meaning – all these things are ultimately of significance to the philosopher seeking to maximize coherence.  Who created the lie, who fostered it and how, what was being protected, stolen or who was to be harmed by the lie? What have the former and current habits of the lie promoter been? Are there undercurrents of method employed in this lie, which match methods we have observed in other purported or contended ‘facts’? All of these questions suddenly become very salient and informative when a lie is exposed. In similar fashion, when one promulgates a lie, it is useful to see who repeats it, who buys it wholesale and who ignores it. Lies leave traces of intelligence which can be put to good use by an intelligence assimilation specialist.

The enrichment gained in the finding of a true organic fact, pales in comparison to the vast enlightenment entailed inside the exposing of a lie. A fact simply serves to inform on one element of the structure of gnosis – while a lie, once resolved, explodes into a cornucopia of information. The philosopher therefore, ironically, is in the business of lies in a way. The lie, like a spy who is exposed, but who’s exposure is not yet known, is his enemy held closer than friend. To the philosopher, the lie is the threshing flail and not simply the chaff itself. It is a tool and lens, and not simply a disposition.

Rudyard Kipling lamented in his famous poem inside The Elephant’s Child: I Keep Six Honest Serving Men.

I KEEP six honest serving-men
(They taught me all I knew);
Their names are What and Why and When
And How and Where and Who.

It is clear that knowledge is not simply a set of facts, rather it consists as well in the form of the Who and the Why, the How of the What, Where and When. These are the factors which become elicited in the discovery of a lie. This is why the observation of the lie, informs so well. Perhaps we should re-write Kipling’s poem in this fashion.

Of honest serving-men
(When all is not known true);
Step past the What and Where and When
And find How, Why and Who.

The Seductive Opiate of Sleight-of-Hand Control (and Conflict)

Surreptitious MethodWhen a magician applies his wares, there exists in reality only the joy of entertainment to be found in sleight-of-hand performance. When a Social Skeptic deceives, this act is done under the full infrastructure fabric of a lie. The play is known only to the Social Skeptic.

The Social Skeptic bears an addiction to the methods and rush of deception to such a degree, that they have invested a portion of their human worth inside their ability to deceive as many types of people as possible, in as clever a means as is sustainable. The more voices of celebrity and authority who regurgitate their pablum, the greater their high.

This is their ‘one ring.’ And if the Social Skeptic can not only deceive his opponents, but even more satisfyingly mislead scientists, politicians, sychophants and journalists alike; so much more enrapturing is the opiate of the lie – prompting the anti-philosopher to craft more and more elaborate forms of disinformative contrivance, in order to sustain their fix. The Social Skeptic does not care about philosophy, gnosis nor the subject at hand. These are all implements which serve inside the play, the play to which only he and his wink and nudge allies, are witness. Truth is therefore in reality, irrelevant – belied by an ubercompliance to instead, being right.

Doubt, belief and provisional knowledge are three building blocks which compose some of the fabric of the lie. This is why the ethical skeptic relies upon the suspension of these things – embodied in the philosophy of the epoché. Rather than decide for himself what is true and untrue, instead he robs the lie spinner of the raw material he desperately needs.

In general, humans lie for 3 main reasons (see the blog graphic above). They lie in order to

  1. Protect something they love,
  2. Gain without delivery of commensurate value in return and
  3. Harm through revenge or condemnation of someone they disdain.

However, there is a fourth reason why humans will lie.

4. The Joy of Sleight-of-Hand, Control and Conflict

In the graphic above, we can observe an operating group who are not functioning under this assumed contract between the magician and his audience, nor are they acting under one of the three motivations of the lie, cited above. The red circle depicts a very specific undercurrent motivation for this type of broader social liar. The heady rush of power experienced by those who find that they can work certain methods in order to craft the basis of what it is that people believe. The joy of using sleight-of-hand (even more so than facts) confirms to us that it is indeed we, and not science nor research nor doctrines, that controls the minds of men. We are the science, you are not (see Nihilism).

Those who perpetuate this type of lie exist in three groups:  those who promote the OverLie, those who fabricate the lies themselves, and those who unwittingly become the pawns and sycophants who serve to enforce the lies socially. The OverLie is typcially a cosmology, religion or social structure which must be protected at all costs. It is not always known by the fabricators and usually is not understood by the sycophancy as well.  Let’s examine the definition of the OverLie in terms of Popperian Science:

OverLie:  The compulsory adherence to an idea around which testing for falsification is prohibited.

Lie Spinner:  Ω • ⊕  Any entity which has been ceded ongoing power, yet at the same time retains an ongoing lack of accountability. A standard employed by a proxy agent, as a virtual mass in the social leveraging of a victim.

Sycophant: A newly indoctrinated person possessing an energetic Pollyanna vulnerability (see the Ten Pillars), along with a lack of depth, experience and circumspect wisdom; who is exploited into a role of win-at-all-costs enlistment under the cause identified by a Lie Spinner.

The avid reader will notice that the preceding definitions are the same ones offered by The Ethical Skeptic for ‘religion’, ‘god’ and ‘god proxy’ respectively, under a separate blog. This is not an accident. For in reality, the one who fabricates a lie is operating under a god-complex to begin with.

The seeking of truth without prejudice, preference and undue provision, is the finest act of humility on the part of the ethical skeptic.

And as an ethical skeptic myself, my hackles only get raised when I see someone tampering with the raw materials to be employed in the crafting of the lie. I could care less when Social Skeptics get sued, caught molesting children, or put in jail for medical fraud. I do not find satisfaction in these events in the least. These are the negative manifestations of humanity upon which I do not wish to focus. I do not possess an epistemic commitment to such an extent so as to seek or appreciate harm or revenge on others. Nor do I seek to rub their misfortunes as salt into their wounds. These biases are anathema to the ethical skeptic. I wish them well. I wish them to not lie to me.

The Habitual Methods (Fabric) of the Social Liar

The person making a claim to science,

  • Can easily go observe for them self, yet refuses to do so
  • Will bash only whipping-horse subjects (like ‘homeopathy’) popular inside their peer group
  • Refuses to re-examine underlying assumptions and provisional knowledge used
  • Exhibits an over-reliance on inductive science and refusal to undertake deductive alternative assessment
  • Views the world as being divided into opponents and allies
  • Focuses on the high visibility of journalism which promotes their beliefs
  • Exhibits a strong urge to punish their opponents
  • Employs weapon words, mocking and one-liners
  • Advocates for the removal of a human right or freedom (typically because someone might die if we don’t)
  • Habitually argues and exhibits a win-at-all-costs attitude
  • Gets angry or scoffs when any research is conducted which they do not like
  • Misrepresents (see The Tree of Knowledge Obfuscation) in consistent patterns, protecting one idea or social understanding, with respect to
    • Opponents
    • Semantics
    • Data
    • Method
    • Science
    • Argument
    • Assumption
    • Groups
    • Self and
    • Authorities

For more on this analysis of the faking science representative, see How to Spot a Fake Skeptic.

TES Signature


July 30, 2016 Posted by | Agenda Propaganda, Institutional Mandates, Social Disdain | Leave a comment

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