My Take on Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (2019)

Here is my set of positions on Covid-19:

The Covid-19 illness originates from a real, highly communicable, and dangerous virus (SARS-CoV-2 2019); deadly primarily to our beloved fellow citizens over the age of 65 and those bearing specific medical vulnerabilities. Covid is not a hoax. It is a grave societal/pandemic concern. All my analysis and commentary has reinforced this concern from the very start. This danger mandates action on all our parts.

If you are at high risk (Age 65+ and a significant co-morbidity), you should get the vaccine, despite its risks. If you are healthy and younger in age, I cannot make that decision for you but I would err toward longer-term precaution, all things being equal. Just be warned that the vaccine bears its own set of adverse events (some severe or even deadly), while as well – a waning in its efficacy is clearly showing in the data, especially as it regards ‘Omicron’ variants. Should you choose the vaccination route, be aware that you will need the booster and beyond, no doubt. Each shot, and added shot, serves to increase your adverse event risk, so weight the risk balance against Covid carefully.

[Feb 2023 Note: I now see that this balanced vaccination perspective on my part was mistaken. Eight of the older members of our family who took the vaccine, have suffered enormously, gotten cancer, have extreme blood clotting/sequelae, and/or have died in 2023 alone.

The sheer magnitude of Excess Non-Covid Natural Cause Mortality, currently at around 550,000 citizens,1 has cast significant doubt as to the safety of the mRNA vaccines. The short term therapeutic effect identified by the CDC against hospitalization from the Delta variant (this did not show in the death numbers curiously), has been more than offset by excess death and a scientifically validated 2.6 times greater likelihood of the vaccinated getting multiple Covid infections into the future.]

Beware of those who insist that there is no need to research or apply treatments for Covid, ‘because we have a vaccine’ or ‘because we control it through lockdown’. This is a human rights crime, and those who apply authority by means of such logic should be dismissed from their medical or governmental position once the crisis is endemic. Treatment is the first duty of medicine, and an appeal to ignorance fallacy regarding supposed the absence of treatments has merely served to cause harm.2

I advocated for a limited sequestration when knowledge level was low, Covid was escalating very fast, hospitals were overfull, and infection case fatality rate was uncertain early on (reported in the data we received as being ~3 to 4%). I advocate for the wearing of N95 masks (I am not and have never been ‘anti-mask’ – I have designed labs and clean rooms in my past, I am a pro-mask designer and planner, and am a mask advocate for Covid as well), social distancing, hygiene/cleanliness, modified HVAC and sewage/manure exposures, limited large gatherings and other NPIs as would help limit a peak surge of Covid-19 cases. These actions will have limited effect on its eventual spread and seroprevalence however, so they should be only temporary. Our best course of action short of a safe and effective vaccine if such can be had, is a level of herd immunity inside the 20% of our population who are connectors (most mobile and transaction-bearing citizens). Beyond this I have not made and do not make forecasts on what Covid will do as a virus. It remains a threat to our public health.

Once knowledge-level grew (CDC agreed with my iCFR estimate of 0.26%, flu being 0.06 to 0.14%) and smarter actions on our part could be outlined, certain politically-motivated parties along with the Federation of State Medical Boards blocked and obfuscated effective Covid preventions, treatments and other mitigating modalities for months, or made similar hasty panic-fueled bad decisions on behalf of our most vulnerable citizens. Several of our family members almost died because of lack of access to fibrinolytic/blood thinning and pneumonia treatments before having to go to the emergency room.

This cruel and inhumane over-reach in authority was enacted to preserve the vaccine Emergency Use Authorization, which could not stand up if treatments were available and in use.3

Thus, these agencies murdered US Citizens solely in order to obtain profit from their vaccine promoting corporations – and will go down in history as some of the most evil of humanity on record, along with the likes of Stalin, Mao Zedong, Josef Mengele, and the Khmer Rouge.

As of May 2023, up to 920,000 of our citizens have died solely because of denial of treatment and this death-camp styled experimental malice (see Exhibit A). Moreover, these parties felt they could exploit misinformation, flawed testing processes, case-rate exaggeration, timeframe of reporting, underlying cause of death logical confusion, media messaging, and social coercion to impart panic and despair around Covid-19 into our at-risk constituency. Another 150,000 citizens (see Exhibit B) then died from iatrogenic gain boost, despair, and disruption from this purposed societal over-reaction. All this to enact political/economic power and quickly-altered 2020 election processes in 40 US States, all to their non-transparent favor.

Exhibit A – US All Cause Mortality versus baseline (PFE non-adjusted) with breakout of all mortality types.
Exhibit B – US Suicide Addiction Assault Accident Abandonment & Despair Mortality

These no-income-risk parties used their new-found political power to harm their at-income-risk political enemies under the guise of virtue, and did so with abandon and glee. Irrational business lockdowns were mandated/promoted without scientific backing, and continued well after studies demonstrated clearly their inefficacy. Small to medium private businesses were decimated, while globalist, oligarch, offshore-asset, socialist businesses were favored. 36 million Americans were left unemployed, and half of American private and small to medium businesses were irrevocably harmed or bankrupted. Eventually, anywhere from 2 to 5 million citizens or more (currently at 1.07 million, in Exhibit C below) will be killed by these actions of malicious intent, causing the death toll from deception/coercion/mistreatment alone to far exceed the count of those who were killed from Covid-19 itself (~340,000, see Exhibit A).

Exhibit C – Number of Deaths by Manmade US National Disaster
Exhibit D – The entire process was a human rights crime from the beginning

This constituted a human rights crime of historically unprecedented method and magnitude. These actions constituted high crimes of terror and oppression, under U.S. Code § Section 2331, Title 18 and 18 U.S. Code § 35, as well as Johnson vs. Monsanto CGC-16-550128. The parties harmed in this process should be awarded class action and oppression restitution from the perpetrators including media, universities, their foundations/syndicates and the involved misrepresenting agencies.

The Ethical Skeptic, “My Take on Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (2019)”; The Ethical Skeptic, WordPress, 9 Aug 2020; Web,

  1. The Ethical Skeptic, “Houston, We Have a Problem (Part 1 of 3)”; The Ethical Skeptic, WordPress, 20 Aug 2022; Web,
  2. Robert H. Schmerling, PhD; Harvard Health Blog: First, do no harm; June 22, 2020;
  3. The Ethical Skeptic, “Denial of Early Covid-19 Treatment – A Crime Against Humanity”; The Ethical Skeptic, WordPress, 30 Dec 2021; Web,
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I advocate for the wearing of N95 masks (I am not and have never been
‘anti-mask’ – I have designed labs and clean rooms in my past, I am a
pro-mask designer and planner, and am a mask advocate for Covid as well)

What do you think of the argument that masks aren’t effective against Covid, that some persons like el gato malo ( put forward?


I reject the premise that there is such a thing as “SARS-CoV-2. I am no more-nor-less an expert in this field than anyone here. A virus that mutates every 10 days or so being a danger to the worlds population is ridiculous. I’m going back to rubbing blue mud in my navel and shaking bones at the moon.

Scott S Manzel

Yes, but. This vax and this virus predate Trumps presidency. This plan is far grander. We might become distracted in the election stuff. But don’t. Faucci will Faucci. He learned in the HIV pandemic. He AZT’ ed them to death as he Remdesivir ed them to death when ventilators didn’t work during CV. But he only a patsy playing a divisive part, an intentionally deceptive part, that successfully frightened a huge swath of people. To subjugate a people’s will, Make them confused, afraid, uncertain. Blind them with the science. Repeat it till they submit. We must protect the vulnerable becomes… Read more »


Have been following you on Twitter since May ‘20 and appreciate this guide.
If you could expound on your December ‘20, February ‘21 tweets re flu vaccines, ALZ/dementia upswing, “something’s not right here”, Lewy Barr Philippine research, that would be helpful.
Also, any wisdom regarding the number of routine childhood vaccines (including flu when discharged from the hospital after birth, and soon, I fear, covid) would be also be appreciated. Thank you.


TES, what’s your opinion on the the (mRNA) vaccines?
Even young people I know will be happy to get anything that is “approved” but I don’t see the cost-benefit being close to there for anyone who isn’t old or otherwise high risk. Especially I worry about young healthy people and potential long-term side-effects from such a new mechanism of vaccine.
P.S. Really appreciate this blog and your COVID work, both have shaped a lot of how I’ve thought this year.


Would such studies be able to be done in an accelerated timeframe as the one we’re in?
My thinking is that they would have to take years if not decades to truly assess (e.g., auto-immune) impacts over time. So it goes to the practical question of should healthy young adults get a vaccine next year or not given all this uncertainty.


What was the verdict, TES?

Tommy Schopenhauer

The language of this time is what worries me most – in fact, sometimes it is outright disturbing. It is hard to think rationally in this climate, with the constant feeling of (maybe?) being cheated on by some (false?) semblance of rationality …
Reality nowadays closely resembles an X-Files story arc, if you ask me – and that is just a popular culture reference …


I like what you write. May I recommend a writing method to simplify, clarify, and improve your written content? Omit the unnecessary use of “in order” in all instances of “in order to…” to read just “to…” as writing best practice. For reference, see

[…] Here is an item from August that comes at the issue in a different way but has similar findings. That link goes to an anonymous […]

ray j wallin

I have read through this page a number of times over the past few weeks to better grasp your methods and my understanding of this COVID-19 debacle has increased substantially. Thank you especially for your quite readable graphs. I agree that, in too many ways, we have handled and continue to handle COVID incorrectly, but while most analysis focuses on what is being done incorrectly, little is said about a proper response to a virus. Briefly, how you think the USA (or any other country) should have responded to COVID in Feb/March of 2020? Keep everything open? Protect the elderly?… Read more »

David Grawrock

This is fantastic. Now i’m going to read your other posts. One comment, and hopefully you will take this as constructive criticism, why in the world don’t you use the Oxford comma? :)

Adrian Ward

I am having a bit of trouble understanding your figures. You have Died ‘Of’ numbers at 138,148 and Died ‘With at 57,034. Those 2 added together add up to 195,182 – which you list as CDC All-Causes Excess Total, but then you also have ‘Lockdown Fatalities at 50,094. Shouldn’t the All-Causes Total be the 195,182 + 50,094.


I didn’t notice that ‘5 million famine deaths’ number among this list on my first read. Thinking about it, it is just crazy. The same people who went into a frenzy at Trump for ‘locking down too late'(Of course, they weren’t screaming at him to do it until he’d already cut off china travel but whatever), and at the tens of thousands of corona deaths, are pretty silent about literally MILLIONS of people now being dead…I’m reading that correctly, right? 5 million people worldwide already died of famine as a result of the lockdowns affecting world economies? Although I’m assuming… Read more »


Great stuff, it really helped me learn! My favorites were the Great Repression term and Law of Large Numbers. My own little take on that Law of Large Numbers is that there is one key mistake which makes it all possible. People making these hysteria claims of doom should explain what threshold of death counts should occur for it to count as doom and use other examples of pandemics that are deadly. They need to have a clear set of standards rather than keeping all the criteria that make something a pandemic a mystery. That way they can be held… Read more »


The Gaussian Blindness definition is GOLD: “I’ve got my head in the oven, and my ass in the fridge, so I’m OK.” :-)

mark lavigueur

I hope this isn’t a trap to catch out folks trying to think without state supervision. Thanks for all the work you put in on this. You’ve corrected a few errors in my own thought. I’m grateful.


The CDC database is still inaccessible, and the CDC site is wrong. We are not at “7.6% PIC”, but rather 4% Covid – 5 weeks now below the epidemic threshold of 5.8% for MMWR Week 42.

We are reducing unreported Covid Reserve again for the 3rd week straight – encouraging…

You wrote the above on twitter. How are you getting from 7.6% PIC to 4%. I am hoping to learn. I would very much like to believe we are out of pandemic/epidemic conditions.


Completely makes sense.

I am hoping that we are below the level where this is a pandemic. Maybe the graph is complex. Can you do a graph that just shows two data points? The actual Covid deaths and the other?


You do amazing work on this by the way. Sorry.


Can you explain how the 5.8% floor number to qualify as a pandemic is arrived at?


Teach me.