The Ethical Skeptic

Challenging Pseudo-Skepticism, Institutional Propaganda and Cultivated Ignorance

Six Vaccinial Generation Trends Fueled by Concealed Profits

Vaccines, once critical interventions which saved lives, have morphed into a loss leader product. A key lever in turbocharging pharmaceutical company price-to-earnings and return-on-research investment performance benchmarks. This robust financial boon is but a moon-cast shadow compared to the cost which is born by US families in terms of permanent injury to their children. Six clear warning signs are manifesting socially today, which both serve to confirm such injury, and as well forebode critical implications in terms of US national security in the decades to come.

The Concealed Profits: Blended Cost Fraud

Projections for next year revenues globally derived from the sales of vaccines are on the order of $60 billion US dollars. This reflects a current revenue growth rate of 11% (historically 10 to 15%).1 While these sales represent a mere 4.5% of the overall global $1.35 trillion in market revenue for all pharmaceuticals, if we consider that there are only a subset of companies which manufacture vaccines out of the thousands which compose the pharmaceutical market, this represents a much higher portion of those companies’ revenue bases – becoming critical elements inside their glowing financial performance reports. So much so, that according to the Wall Street Journal, industry leader Merck relies upon vaccine profits as the key beacon inside their annual report.2 However, for the most part the direct profitability of vaccines is hidden through sleight-of-hand expense manipulation on the part of pundits seeking to obstruct and cloud their accountability to the at-risk stakeholder public.

The core principle resides in this – heavy investment/depreciation/research development is conducted inside stand alone, clinical-stage, heavy on one-time-expense startups – who are then bought by the largest 16 vaccine producers once their vaccine has begun its profitability stride. Thereafter, these profits can be tucked inside the blended-expense financials of a much larger corporation. This latter key deception renders the profit level from vaccines hidden from the lay public, and hinges upon this: one cannot distinguish the direct expenses which relate solely to vaccine channel activity, as distinct from the overall business expense base – thereby distributing the actual profitability of vaccines as a product group to appear to be an aspect of the entire business.

If we examine just vaccines as a business segment, this principle can be expressed in the converse. As a business person it is wrong and/or illegal to take costs from less profitable businesses, and load them onto more profitable businesses in order to reduce the profit/taxes reported by the more profitable business. This sleight-of-hand method is exemplified no better than in the pro forma shenanigans framed by authors Stanley Plotkin MD, Walter Orenstein MD and Paul Offit MD, in their book Vaccines: Expert Consult.3 The three authors are not experts on business strategy and finance. In their publication, they employ this surreptitious method of blended-ratio profit and loss calculation (see left hand side of P&L table below), even framing it post tax (a professional error), and failing to use industry standard profit and loss practices, in order to downplay the total profit wound up inside vaccine sales (estimating it erroneously to be around 10% of revenue). Take note that both the expense to sales indices and pro forma which Plotkin, et al. employed on the left in the table below, were Merck Group’s in structure and blended/averaged/distributed cost percentages for their whole business (see Merck Group Consolidated Income Statement for 2017).4 These expense ratios are not representative of their expense structures relating to vaccines at all. This is fast-with-numbers deception on the part of Plotkin, et al. in their book’s misrepresentation of the industry (to be clear: not on the part of any particular tax filing, individual, corporation nor Merck Group). How can a doctor, who has been compensated to the tune of multiple millions of dollars in direct and indirect compensation by all of the Big Four vaccine manufacturers, who cannot even manage his own household income and expenses, nor has ever actually run a business P&L, then pretend to ‘expert consult’ the public on the finances of his very funders?5  It is a fair question.

If similar techniques, allocating costs from ‘cost heavy’ business channels and into ‘cost light’ channels, in order to make the latter group’s profit numbers appear to be less, were to be committed by a business in their tax/earnings reporting, this would be known by another industry and legal name: Fraud.

In the P&L comparatives to the right you can examine a contrast between this bullshit method of profit formulation and the real contribution margin method of cost accounting for vaccines. We also employ here the correct market revenue of $60 billion USD, and not ‘$24 billion’. To be gracious, we shall call the bullshit method, the ‘Blended Cost Method’. I have caught several clients over the decades employing blended cost methodologies to hide embezzlement, mafia payoffs, shipping and ordering mistakes, non-performing managers, weak divisions, or conceal malfeasance from investors or corporate officers and vulnerable companies from hostile acquisition. Vaccine expenses should not be accounted for in this manner. If you and I went out to dinner, and I had Filet Mignon, escargot, cheese cake, caviar and a bottle of fine French wine, while you only had a single Pellegrino water – yet I insisted that we split the check 50/50, you would be pretty damn pissed at the incumbent dishonesty. This practice of blended expense index averaging is no different than that style of dinner check bamboozle.

When fully leveraged, non-slack, direct costs are applied to a contribution profit and loss pro forma and against just the associated vaccine revenue of a non clinical-stage vaccine in its sales maturation curve (the way it is professionally done by real business strategists and those who set direct work content and indirect cost standards inside pharmaceutical manufacturing operations), profit under such vaccine business activity is actually on the order of 80 to 85% EBITDA and 70 to 75% net profit. In other words, vaccines are nigh to six times more profitable than other drugs on average – when accounting is professionally done, benchmark to benchmark.

Why are vaccines so profitable in comparison to the erstwhile 14% which pharma companies make on their other products?6 Because vaccines are quasi-mandatory, are skyrocketing in price (not cost),7 enjoy luxurious economies of scale, they require no marketing and very lean/leveraged/subsidized logistics, place little demand upon corporate sales general administrative and overhead, and further do not have to pass the same rigor/delay in 3-phase clinical trials which other drugs must suffer.8 Most lot monitoring and factory inspection/certification is borne by the FDA itself.9 Expenses to influence legislation and pay off representatives, squelch countering voices through fake skeptics, media and universities, pay rebates and chargebacks to pharmacy benefit managers etc. do not count as ‘Sales and Marketing’ expenses inside GAAP accounting ethics (as these are simply distributions of profits – and not qualified expenses). Counting this as OSG&A allows vaccine companies to lower their effective tax on earnings to around 10% by ‘expensing’ what otherwise would ethically be considered earnings.10 11 Finally, vaccines do not bear the 4% litigation exposure allocation which do most other drugs (hidden inside the figures used on the left of this chart), and what penalties are paid out in legal compensation, are borne directly by a surcharge on those being injured in the first place.12

What a deal! I would love to operate a business enjoying all the above competitive advantages. Were I a fake human, I would live like a rock star – having millions in my personal accounts. I would be a fake skeptic to the nth degree, in order to protect such a gravy train. But most of all – I would hide this cash cow at all costs. I would enlist unpaid apparatchiks to help me obfuscate the issue socially. I would enlist the aid of the media and ensure that any government administration of my domain, represented me and not the people who they are there to serve and protect.

So the value of vaccine margin contribution is of enormous importance to the participating pharmaceutical industry. It not only constitutes 1/3rd of a typical manufacturer’s total retained earnings each reporting quarter, but more importantly, since its segment growth rate is almost twice that of all other activity – vaccines hold down the lion’s share of price/earnings growth (Δ P to E) performance sensitivity, ergo – they have the largest impact upon the company’s stock price.

See Why Novavax is Up 60% in 2018 by The Motley Fool13

This is why the Wall Street Journal reported vaccines’ impact on the stock price for Merck in the way that it did.14 Investor ears perk up when they hear about new vaccine rollouts and clinical stage startups – as they know that they are vastly more profitable than are classic maturation pathway drugs. This savvy ilk of investor tends to cut through the blended cost bullshit (they get this trick too) and invest directly in, and only in, vaccines. Were the Plotkin/Orenstein/Offit method actual reality, vaccines would never impact stock price at all – never garner such attention. The real world actuality is that vaccine development bears enormous significance in impact upon both retained earnings and growth of P/E ratios of a company. If one considers vaccines to further act as loss leaders (albeit profitable loss leaders) – a mandatory sale which forces a customer into a store (or in front of a doctor in this context), the actual opportunity contribution revenue derived from mandatory vaccines is possibly twenty times this global revenue level.

The conflict-of-interest incentive to create new vaccines is therefore unethically and unsustainably high. A vaccine against ebola is an act of mercy. A vaccine against chicken pox, is an act of monetization.

This is why you see people like Paul Offit and Skeptical Raptor clamoring to develop new vaccines and legislate them as compulsory, despite there being ‘little profit’. Yeah right. They will masquerade their monetization scheme as an errand of mandatory mercy.

This all serves to demonstrate why vaccines are the pinnacle of profit for the participating pharmaceutical companies, belying the mere deception imparted by their blended profit margins. Their financial contribution leverages the ‘Return on Research’ performance mark, an industry benchmark for evaluating pharmaceutical corporation financial performance,15 into much higher and more attractive levels as compared to other drug manufacturers – thereby making the vaccine pharmaceutical company a much more lucrative investment compared to the run of the mill competition who must labor under normal business pressures and costs.

Do not listen to inexpert voices such as Skeptical Raptor or Paul Offit on this. The vast majority of these clowns have never run a scientific lab, never made a scientific discovery, never run a business and have never developed a contribution cost decision analysis nor any form of business or market strategy. They are poseurs – with self-identified ‘skepticism’ as their main qualification. They alter the facts (financials) to fit their agency – and hope that you don’t possess the expertise to counter their shallow inexpert pablum.16 They base their pre-emptive agency upon torfuscation, 1% significant inductive, abductive and panductive inference,17 and shallow inexpert academic study – not plenary science. ‘Vaccines don’t cause autism’ is not a scientific hypothesis,18 nor is it even provable by inference – never get your science from a social-bullying dolt who constantly screams this, no matter what letters they advertise behind their name. They attempt to negate your moral and ethical right to at-risk-stakeholder’s voice through sophomoric and ironic accusations of ‘Dunning-Kruger’. A failure to understand that stakeholders have a duty and right to intervene, even in science, when they observe risks, abrogations of ethics, and perceptions of impact which are being ignored by professionals. This is not tantamount to pretending to be one of those professionals, as such accusation constitutes a dilettante straw man/red herring argument which does nothing but serve to destroy the credibility of the person offering it. Not bearing even the first level of acumen necessary to grasp these principles; they are nothing but malicious idiots. I wonder if Raptor, Offit or Novella invest this same level of cursory and lazy incompetence in the other ‘skeptic’ topics inside which they serve as agency (see Ten Reasons Why People No Longer Find Skeptics Credible)? A key hint here which you will find consistent with all fake skeptics – laziness becomes a method of inference.

Vaccine caution voices hold all the necessary elements of hypothesis (i.e. science):
Necessity, Hundreds of Supporting Studies, Conservancy of Risk, Wittgenstein Definition, Parsimony, Address and
Inform Duty Compliance, Supporting Intelligence and Physical/Physiological Mechanism.19

Those who see vaccines as a panacea and profit center hold a couple shallow inductive
utile absentia academic studies (10 specific weak inductive studies by their own meta-study)

– illegitimate money and media control. All this, incompetent and malevolent pseudoscience.20

This sixfold higher contribution margin potential, coupled with an assumption of safety based upon little research, is why our vaccine schedule has grown from a 7 event one in 1983, to a current 53 event schedule in 2019.21 It is why investors clamor to throw dollars at vaccine clinical stage startups.22 All of this to support an industry sub-vertical which operates sans any testing or safety research, or any form of followup study (ignoro eventum) – all of which are the ethical standards inside every other branch of consumer medicine.

Obfuscation of the Cost

But there is a cost which private citizens are inheriting inside this play, and quietly bearing – part of the unacknowledged value chain of vaccines. The cost is elicited no better than in the closing statement by the author of the Taylor-Swerdfeger-Eslick ‘Vaccines are not associated with…’ study referenced above, which narrowed the field of inductive ‘proof’ (there is no such thing, especially in proving an absence) down to ten inductive cohort and case control ‘best evidence’ studies. We shall deal with those ten pieces of scientific garbage in another blog article. But for now, Dr. Eslick:

As an epidemiologist I believe the data that is presented in this meta-analysis. However, as a parent of three children I have some understanding of the fears associated with reactions and effects of vaccines. My first two children have had febrile seizures after routine vaccinations, one of them a serious event. These events did not stop me from vaccinating my third child, however, I did take some proactive measures to reduce the risk of similar adverse effects. I vaccinated my child in the morning so that we were aware if any early adverse reaction during the day and I also gave my child a dose of paracetamol 30 min before the vaccination was given to reduce any fever that might develop after the injection. As a parent I know my children better than anyone and I equate their seizures to the effects of the vaccination by increasing their body temperature. For parents who do notice a significant change in their child’s cognitive function and behaviour after a vaccination I encourage you to report these events immediately to your family physician and to the ‘Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System’.23

   ~ Dr. Guy D. Eslick, Professor of Cancer Epidemiology and Medical Statistics at The University of Sydney, Australia

Indeed Dr. Eslick, my son too had an ‘event’ in the hours after the DTaP vaccination. The event involved six excruciating weeks of nightly fever and pain. My son never again looked us in the eye after almost that very hour of the ‘adverse event’. His function changed from one of bright eyed, expressive and engaging – to one of encephalitic, brain injury, shut off from us all – in a matter of hours. Now at age 17 he still cannot tie his shoes, count change, nor tell time.

Our first hints of a problem came in K-4 kindergarten. The diagnosis in a medical plan did not come until age 7. Too late to apply for NVICP remedy, too late to be included your ‘best evidence’ Madsen-Hviid styled ‘study’ – a study design which essentially claims that my son’s type of injury does not even exist. My son’s case was one of severe impact. What the fuck happens in the case of milder impacts? And how many cases of milder impact are there? The simple fact is Dr. Eslick, you do not know these answers, and you have designed your studies to avoid these questions. This is what serves to establish them as academic pseudoscience.

No, the reality persists that parents are having a hard time attaching the neurological/autoimmune/endocrine malady to its cause – precisely because of their separation in time, a lack of doctor education, our collective inability to measure such impacts and the current political ill will surrounding the issue. Not the converse that vaccine and malady are ‘coincidentally juxtaposed in child’s age’ as you and your cabal have pushed without evidence. More cases are obfuscated than are manufactured, by a long shot. You are simply exploiting the convenience that most of the public cannot grasp the trick of disproof-statistics you have pulled. I, and millions of other parents including scientists, engineers, lawyers, doctors and other highly educated professionals, contend that

1.  You carry a fantasy in your institutionally-cocooned mind that vaccine caution voices all live in rural American trailer parks and get our information off anti-science websites. The reality is that you get your information from pre-cooked propaganda, not science. You boasted with the word evidence, as this evidence was about 1% into the subject domain at best.

2. To someone who understands and has done real science, your meta-study was not a meta-study,24 nor was it even that good as a summary article – as its hypothesis was not supported by the sufficiency nor type of inference employed. ‘Believing the data’ means nothing, as it is the study design, accidental exclusions and inclusions and how you treat them, the way in which the study draws its inference, confidence and method of attachment to hypothesis, along with the parsimonious incremental risk nature of the hypothesis, which are important in science. All features of real science which this study failed miserably. The fact that you did not get this, is illuminating. Cancer epidemiology is not a sound underpinning for understanding systemic epidemiology (see Systemic Failure chart above and to the right). One is discrete, the other is continuous – totally different objective/analytical bases.

3.  You do not know that your kids were not harmed, because you have no direct-measure nor reference usable in telling so. This style of injury will only show up in backward-looking longitudinal aggregate case and control comparatives (hints below). You should have already known this as an epidemiologist. It was, and is, your responsibility now (ignoro eventum). ‘My child had a severe reaction and is fine.’ is called an anecdote. ‘My child had a severe reaction and was harmed for life.’ is called ‘Ockham’s Razor necessity’ under hypothesis reduction theory, and is not equivalent to anecdote. This is usually taught in undergraduate Biomedical Informatics 233: Intermediate Biostatistics: Analysis of Discrete Data, Study Design and Epidemiology, just in case you missed that class. Study up on the topic sometime, it might be useful in your career.

4.  You possess no awareness (being an Australian not American citizen) that the VAERS/NVICP system is a joke and serves/does absolutely nothing, except make people like you feel good, or provide a buzzword to allow you to pose (to the dilettante) as if you know something of merit about this issue. They may fall for it, but a parent who has been through this knows it better than do you.

5.  You are not aware that the vast majority of even severe vaccine injuries get no compensation by this banana republic award court (NVICS) fantasy you carry in your mind to assuage your conscience over the vaccine injuries you do know about. Despite my son’s permanent disability, we were not able to get it diagnosed and understood until a full 4 years after the court filing window closed. We were told that it would pass; as our doctors were not trained on recognizing vaccine injury to begin with. And Finally,

6.  You have not examined the statistics below and truly are not engaged in your profession, nor fully versed in the claims you publish as ‘science’. I have to do this analysis as my third job – after my first two jobs, to pay for the $2.6 million needed to care for a disabled child. People like me have to do the real work, while you and your peers sit on your snide and pretensive asses; doing very little except work to increase your personal acclaim and fortune.

Yes, this is the unethical system you support – but you, and your cohort of apparatchiks are too lazy to look at this. What you are supporting Dr. Eslick is called an Omega Hypothesis. It is pseudoscience – and in this case, highly harm-imparting pseudoscience, and not just a blurry photo of Bigfoot. You have compromised the integrity of science, knowing that you would never in your at-risk career dare publish a result which ran counter to the prevailing dogma.

Omega Hypothesis (HΩ) – the argument which is foisted to end all argument, period. A conclusion promoted under such an insistent guise of virtue or importance, that protecting it has become imperative over even the integrity of science itself. An invalid null hypothesis or a preferred idea inside a social epistemology. A hypothesis which is defined to end deliberation without due scientific rigor, alternative study consensus or is afforded unmerited protection or assignment as the null. The surreptitiously held and promoted idea or the hypothesis protected by an Inverse Negation Fallacy. Often one which is promoted as true by default, with the knowledge in mind that falsification will be very hard or next to impossible to achieve.

Harm is happening, and we have no way of immediate measuring nor tracking it. Social resistance is enormous towards conducting any study of mechanism which will threaten it. Harm is a continuous, partly occulted function; not a discrete one as Dr. Eslick would have you (and himself) believe. Below we examine part of the robust intelligence base held by vaccine caution voices, which outlines the social manifesting of this harm function.

It is not the studies by vaccine caution scientists which have swayed me the most.
Rather it is the very studies which vaccine proliferation voices throw at me, which have convinced me of the need to raise alarm.

The Six Horsemen of the Vaccine Injury Generation

Yes, the smallpox and polio vaccines were critical. Yes vaccines can eradicate certain types of disease. But there is a cost – on the order of $185 billion to US households alone, and only if you count the burden borne by the families of the 5% most severely impacted by early and frequent immune activation.25 Those who enforce vaccine policy, and knowingly and willfully ignore this cost are just as guilty as if they had caused the maladies themselves. Six defined and undeniable trends are already underway, most well represented inside the Vaccinial Generation of kids – those born after 1994. Six related, statistically verifiable and risk-indicating trends which are ignored by the holier-than-thou defenders of pharmaceutical corporate profits. Yes, while a 7 event vaccine schedule can be argued to be a necessary decision of mercy – a 54 event one cannot. It is fueled simply by profit (as we saw above).

The real cost of this profit, the six gross indicators of childhood injury are as follows:

note: these are not ‘correlations’, rather fingerprint signals, a much higher consilience in inference than simple correlation. Understanding the difference is critical inside any claim to be scientifically literate.

1.  Fingerprint Signal Rise in Autoimmune Disorders

Rheumatic, endocrinological, gastrointestinal and neurological autoimmune diseases exhibit the following global annual percentage increases per year: 7.1, 6.3, 6.2, and 3.7, respectively. While these rates of increase are rather pronounced, the rates of increase in such maladies in the West, and in particular with respect to kids in the United States, are alarmingly higher than even the global average.26 These increases parallel the surge in cancer incidence – something which is not subject to change in diagnostic protocols. This is strong inference that something which is more prevalent in practice in the US, is causing damage to our kids.

Vaccines are linked scientifically, and by legal precedent to a whole host of autoimmune disorders.27 The tip of this ice berg is only just now being studied. It has already been established that mother’s with autoimmunity disorders have a higher incidence of children on the autism disorders spectrum.28 This is the first of the six horsemen to watch for. The rapid and sudden rise in the rates of autoimmune diseases in our kids, since 1994.

2.  Fingerprint Signal Rise in Developmental Delays

A Centers for Disease Control study of children ages 3 – 17 in the United States indicated a 17% annual increase in the incidence of developmental delays in our kids.29 If you examine the details of the study, the trends run counter to the idea that changes in diagnostic protocols are to blame. The increases are focusing on groups by income class and genetics and gender – not DSM IV protocol rollout patterns. The idea that these increases are attributable to changes in diagnostic protocols is an Einfach mechanism. It just sounds good to a layman. It is pseudo-theory, not even a hypothesis in scientific merit. Simply enforced as an answer on the part of those bearing agency. It is one thing to be credulous and investigate something which is possible, and another level of malice altogether to doggedly deny a calamitous risk, based upon no research and no evidence. The two cases of ignorance are not morally comparative. The latter not constituting skepticism nor science at all.

Physical (PT) and occupational (OT) therapy prescriptions have risen dramatically over the last decade and a half in particular.30 The rise in the employment of PT and OT, particularly in boys in the US, contrasts with the rates of the same presciptives in countries which vaccinate less than do we. This is the second horseman of this apocalypse in national security.

3.  Rise in Incidence of Dyskinetics/Ataxia

While rates of dyskentics attributable to cerebral palsy types of injury curiously doubled from the 1970’s to the 1990’s,31 the rates of non-physical birth trauma/hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy dyskinetics/ataxia overall have risen, especially in the United States. Associated physical changes, such as is the case with scoliosis, have seen a dramatic increase in the last two decades inside the United States.32

My recent (anecdote) sample at a public basketball game, resulted in an estimated 26% of the boys participating in the league, exhibiting some variation of dyskinetic/ataxia malady above and beyond normal youthful clumsiness.33 Habitually contracted extremities and unconscious repetitive motions, as well as the associated physical malformations are all on the rise. Research into this malady category is growing at a fast pace, yet remains in its infancy.34 These symptoms (mild forms thereof) are indicative of cerebral injury/encephalopathy of an origin which is not birth physical trauma nor hypoxia in nature. The injury is stemming from something recent and pronounced in change. Something introduced around 1995. This is the third horseman.

4.  Coincident Falling Trend in Both Standardized Testing and IQ Scores Beginning in 1986

SAT scores are falling, and began this current accelerated downward trend in 2002.35

IQ scores are falling, and began this current downward trend in 1986 after decades of increases.36

The fall in IQ scores in the West is perhaps the most under-reported story of our era. For most of the twentieth century, IQ rose by around three points per decade globally, probably because of better nutrition. [This is called The Flynn Effect].  But that trend has recently gone into reverse in developed countries. [The Flynn Effect has reversed dramatically, starting in 1986, the year Reagan signed the The National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act (NCVIA – 42 U.S.C. §§ 300aa-1 to 300aa-34)]

You hadn’t heard? I’m not surprised. Journalists and politicians won’t go near the subject and you can see why.

But a new study from Norway, which examines IQ scores from 730,000 men (standardized tests are part of military service there) disproves all these ideas, because it shows IQ dropping within the same families. Men born in 1991 score, on average, five points lower than men born in 1975. There must, in other words, be an environmental explanation [- recent in scope and pronounced in magnitude].

~ Dan Hannan, Washington Examiner: Opinion 22 Oct 201837

This is the fourth horseman, and is very stark and well documented.

5.  Shrinking Cranial and Hat/Headgear Sizes

Countering a 150 year trend in head size growth,38 a United Kingdom study in 2015 confirmed the trend wherein the average head circumference of children in the UK was on the decline.39 While the study cites that data regarding neuro-cognitive delays and head circumference is scarce, it does indicate concern that declines persist independent of any known associated microcephaly cause.

Infants with developmental deficits demonstrate delayed acceleration of head circumference velocity, compared with typical infants in the first 2 months. Infants with motor delay manifest decreased velocity, compared with infants presenting other developmental deficits.

~ Tal, Cohen, et al.; Decreased head circumference velocity as related to developmental deficit in infancy; Pediatric Neurology40

More data on this is needed, but eventually merchandising systems for retailers who sell hats should begin to show a decline in average youth head circumference since 1995. Watch for this horseman to continue to develop over the next two decades.

6.  Rise in Youth Anxiety Depression and Suicide

The odds of adolescents suffering from clinical depression grew by 37 percent between 2005 and 2014, according to a study by Ramin Mojtabai, a professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.41

The suicide rate for white children and teens between 10 and 17 was up 70% between 2006 and 2016, based upon the latest data analysis available from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.42

This is the final horseman and really, the final straw for parents. The only missing element was that – they need to be informed as to what is happening, in order to be able to spot it – and take legislative action. We are tired of being lazily called ‘anti-vaxx’ by people who neither understand any of the above, nor care to know the actual answers. They had them figured out from day one.

(note: as I read this a full week after its posting, the 24 year old, mildly Asperger’s kid four doors down the street committed suicide over the holidays. He could not get the grades to make it into college and was not thriving well in his no-benefits, part time labor and retail jobs. He checked out. His father, brilliant leader of an integrated circuit development firm and mother, highly regarded attorney, are both devastated. Wondering what went wrong. If this continues to replicate, our best and our brightest minds will be encephalitic-compromised, and our nation will stand on the precipice of collapse – from chronic injury to our most valuable resource. This could not have happened faster if it had been planned this way. All the kids on our street have suffered chronic and unreasonable levels of autoimmune, endocrine and neurological disorders.43

None of this results from a fucking change in diagnostic methods. Examine the evidence lazy skeptic, as it speaks clearly on this.

And one final suggestion. Keep count of the number of times the word ‘anecdote’ pops into your head per hoc incidents just like this over the coming decade. If your seared excuse for a conscience lets it get past 10,000 – just maybe someday, the irony of this play may compel you to call it ‘data’. But be sure, if you stand intransigently in the doorway on this and ignore CDC officers becoming 8-digit multimillionaires commensurate with the decline in the wellbeing of our youth – and don’t give a shit – you are going to be trampled by angry and powerful, and yes, very scientifically literate and brilliant parents. Mark my words.)

Well, the day of the pretend science enthusiast is coming to a close. Having your kid harmed serves to hone your skills at detecting pseudoscience fairly sharply. A new form of smart, energized and highly science-informed skeptic is arriving on the horizon. One much less tolerant of willful bullshit and incompetence. Parents who will be seeking prison time from pseudo scientists who caused this enormous harm, not simply excoriation in the media.

To ignore this data above is not ignorance, rather it is malevolence. Skeptics love to speak about ‘The Four Horsemen’ – in their obsession over disproving their favorite hated religion. Yawn. Well here are six horsemen which should send one’s investigative instincts into overdrive. Curiously, self proclaimed skeptics never even look at this data. Very curious.

     How to MLA cite this article:

The Ethical Skeptic, “Six Vaccinial Generation Trends Fueled by Concealed Profits”; The Ethical Skeptic, WordPress, 26 Dec 2018; Web, https://wp.me/p17q0e-9bq

 

December 26, 2018 Posted by | Agenda Propaganda, Social Disdain | | 10 Comments

The Hermit of Nosnix Who Couldn’t be Fooled

This Holiday message from me. When in an effort to see that no one is fooled, you cede control authority to one who cannot be fooled – then everyone ends up being fooled. The Debbles of Doubthill are the pseudosciences, topics so feared by skeptics that we all lose in their mad rush to obfuscate and squelch them. Most Debbles are dispelled in their facing, and not in their avoidance.
A persistence of blindness who’s lesson’s quite cruel
The worst form of idiot thinks he cannot be fooled.

by Theodor Eric Seussel

A planner of trestles and layer of tracks
Purveyor of cartniks with plumthings on their backs,
The Who’s of Fair Pluntkin fully decked out in auld
Could barely scarce function without things which he hauled.
His hovel not cluttered his mind like Straight Lane
His cartniks lined up to shuttle plumthings again,
For short were his musings and so scarce were his lacks
That the Who’s of Fair Pluntkin did cede him their tracks.
Come spring summer’s fresh offing or winter’s cold somethings
No Debble of Doubthill would delay their dear plumthings,
Cartniks would arrive here and then sometimes there
The Who’s of Fair Pluntkin just didn’t care where.
Who’s knew that from Kesnig and Pennington to Kuled
They were the Hermit of Nosnix’s who couldn’t be fooled.
When an idea arose in the talk of Fair Pluntkin
‘Why don’t we go looking for quazlots and buntpins?’
Such cans of rare ore good were legend of old
More precious than silver, fine jewelry or gold.
They setout a plan to build trackway and charter
And bade their tough Hermit to sit down and barter,
But he could not be bought and he would not be schooled
For he was the Hermit of Nosnix and nobody’s fool.
Thus did they cajole him and call him by name
Offering up plumthings and palace and fame,
‘Lay us the tracks there and we’ll run cartnik cans
The Debbles of Doubthill won’t thwart any such plans!’
But staid in his knowledge of their trestles and tracks,
He vowed to confuse cartniks with cans on their backs!
Quazlots and buntpins were foolish men’s mirth
Of fleeting sheer fantasy in essence and worth;
Such trackways to Debbles should never be tooled
I am the Hermit of Nosnix and I cannot be fooled!
So each newly laid line of steel and proud skill
He plotted curve ’round all Debbles of Doubthill;
For whether tracks stopped there or ran ’round their threat
In either case ran no cartnik cans yet!
Year after year Who’s laid out Who plans
To find Debbles of Doubhill had blocked all their cans!
The curves he laid toward them only bent ’round again
To meetup with tracks from once which they came!
So hated he quazlots and buntpins and mirth
That he wouldn’t lay tracks there no matter their worth!
In the town of Fair Pluntkin from Debbles protected
Each winter of somethings Who’s grew more dejected.
T’was cynicism which blocked them and left them to rot
Because quazlots were real and Debbles were not!
A persistence of blindness who’s lesson’s quite cruel
The worst form of idiot thinks he cannot be fooled.
Thus the Who’s of Fair Pluntkin had all left astray
Leaving cartnik’s tracks rusting away where they lay;
While Fair Kesnig and Pennington had taken their outfill
Because they didn’t believe in Debbles of Doubthill.
Come spring summer’s fresh offing or winter’s cold somethings
The town of Fair Pluntkin had run out of dear plumthings,
All Who’s had been duped who lived Kesnig to Kuled
By the Hermit of Nosnix who couldn’t be fooled.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.

     How to MLA cite this article:

The Ethical Skeptic, “The Hermit of Nosnix Who Couldn’t be Fooled”; The Ethical Skeptic, WordPress, 16 Dec 2018; Web, https://wp.me/p17q0e-98Z

 

December 16, 2018 Posted by | Institutional Mandates, Tradecraft SSkepticism | , | Leave a comment

The Apothegm Makes the Poison

The dose makes the poison. This statement is not a logical truth. To cough up this notorious fur-ball of an apothegm in a serious broadscope discussion concerning toxicology risk, informs all concerned about your personal ignorance and desire to deceive – moreso than it speaks anything particular about me. The masters who let loose the dogs of skepticism have found such organic lying to be very effective in asset preservation.

One of the most notorious catch-phrases of pseudo-wisdom the ethical skeptic will encounter from a social skeptic poseur, is the apothegm ‘The dose makes the poison’. It is not that this statement is false. The basis of the quip resides in scientific validity and it is categorically true regarding lethality, yes. However the statement is not a logical truth.1 Logical truth is the state of syllogism which the utterer is deceitfully wishing for you to infer regarding this football of an apothegm. It is a means of lying through stating something which is only conditionally accurate – hoping that their victim will accept the statement as one which addresses the context of toxicity. Discussions of this ilk are rarely over lethality, and most often pertain to the impact of a toxin on the population, environment or family. If your conversant conflates these two concepts in order to enforce the entailed organic lie, or hands you cartoon LD50 charts comparing glyphosate with table salt, stop talking with them immediately. They are a non-player character. A social skeptic.

As an ethical skeptic, never ever ever conduct your communication under such misrepresentation by locution – as people spot this, but will not mention it to you. You will lose credibility, yet not know it, nor understand why in the end. The apothegm is not necessarily true (different from being ‘false’), and that is what disqualifies it from being a logical truth (ethical knowledge). This is of critical path importance to the ethical skeptic. Let’s examine a couple examples before we look at the entire domain of such a statement’s limited applicability (Exhibits I and II below).

If I am asked to consume diazinon in my drinking water (we are never ‘asked’, but let’s pretend we live in such an ethical world) for example, because its use increases corn yields 14%, when we have a glut of corn production each year for decades now in the US as it is, the ppm tolerance for diazinon in my water in such a circumstance is ZERO ppm. A Mean Lethal Dose measure-LD50 does not apply because there is no economic benefit to be derived from the risk I undertake. This, though a simple exercise example, is actually how ethical toxicology is done in the big boy world. When I work establishing food and trade markets, this is the type of mechanism I petition to have inserted in the market constraint dynamics and enterprise API’s used by large trade aggregation desks. This is ethics. Everything else is academic – and possibly immoral. I do not care how much you know or that you use pedophrasty to promote your product, placing pictures of starving children into your ads – if you are lazy/greedy, and that laziness or greed serves to harm others – you are acting under malice and oppression by court definition.

The Puppet Show: Comparing Aggregate Benefit to Individual Risk (while Ignoring Aggregate Risk)

If however, I am forced to drink say some dosage of diazinon, because involved stockholders inside several companies know my representatives and key regulatory agency members, and they were able to get the pesticide pushed through for higher-risk use; and furthermore, these stockholders are now able to buy beachfront vacation homes on St. George Island rather than rent smaller back-lane beach cottages – well under that stark risk/benefit scenario, I will then drink the toxin I suppose. Their benefit outweighs my risk. Now the astute ethical skeptic will observe that, toxin risk is never measured in terms of population descriptives – only individual risk. Individual risk LD50 versus a diffuse set of poorly estimated and confirmed aggregate benefits – the risk is never expressed in terms of aggregate risk – and is never followed up on. In reality the state of ethics in toxicology – per below – is one sad state of affairs.

Social skeptics, as usual, provide no help at all in this matter – ironic, when this is their claimed identity and life goal.

Notice that all the measures regarding toxin risk, relate to the individual.2 There are no studies which attach a measured population affect in humans, to an introduced toxin. There are studies of the farming community, and there exists some study of environmental impact – but no studies following up with human populations as a group. Not even devisement of a suitable measure.3 I find that amusing (horrifying), given that the ethical assessment of toxin risk pertains to impacts and measures relating to populations, not individuals. All of the following entries below, two new observations and five previous ones, are cataloged into The Tree of Knowledge Obfuscation: Misrepresentation of Evidence or Data and apply in this circumstance:

missam singuli

/philosophy : pseudoscience : study design/ : a shortfall in scientific study wherein two factors are evaluated by non equivalent statistical means. For instance, risk which is evaluated by individual measures, compared to benefit which is evaluated as a function of the whole – at the ignorance of risk as a whole. Conversely, risk being measured as an effect on the whole, while benefit is only evaluated in terms of how it benefits the individual or a single person.

Virtue Telescope

/philosophy : sophistry : deception/ : employment of a theoretical virtue benefit projected inside a domain which is distant, slow moving, far into the future, diffuse or otherwise difficult to measure in terms of both potential and resulting impact, as exculpatory immunity for commission of an immoral act which is close by, obvious, defined and not as difficult to measure. Similar to but converse of an anachronistic fallacy, or judging distant events based on current norms.

And of course a smattering of fallacies and crooked thinking art which we have examined before.

idem existimatis – attempting to obscure the contributing error or risk effect of imprecise estimates or assumptions, through an overt focus on the precision or accuracy of other measures inputs inside a calculation, study or argument.

ignoro eventum – institutionalized pseudoscience wherein a group ignores or fails to conduct follow-up study after the execution of a risk bearing decision. The instance wherein a group declares the science behind a planned action which bears a risk relationship, dependency or precautionary principle, to be settled, in advance of this decision/action being taken. Further then failing to conduct any impact study or meta-analysis to confirm their presupposition as correct. This is not simply pseudoscience, rather it is a criminal action in many circumstances.

phantasiae vectis – the principle outlining that, when a human condition is monitored publicly through the use of one statistic, that statistic will trend more favorable over time, without any real underlying improvement in its related human condition. Unemployment not reflecting true numbers out of work, electricity rates or inflation measures before key democratic elections, crime being summed up by burglaries or gun deaths only, etc.

Yule-Simpson Paradox – a trend appears in different groups of data can be manipulated to disappear or reverse (see Effect Inversion) when these groups are combined.

Elemental Pleading – breaking down the testing of data or a claim into testing of its constituents, in order to remove or filter an effect which can only be derived from the combination of elements being claimed. For instance, to address the claim that doxycycline and EDTA reduce arterial plaque, testing was developed to measure the impact of each item individually, and when no effect was found, the combination was dismissed as well without study, and further/combination testing was deemed to be ‘pseudoscience’.

However, given that somebody out there is benefiting, I will gladly accept a drink containing 2 ppm (parts per million) diazinon over one containing 10 ppm, based upon this necessity of individual risk compared to aggregate benefit. Now diazinon features no Efficacy Curve (EC) of benefit for me to ingest, however it does exhibit toxicity measures in 240-day rat studies. Certainly studies of value, and I am glad we completed such diligence. The NOAEL (No Observed Adverse Effect Level) of diazinon is set, as a result of such studies, at 0.02 mg/kg-bodyweight per day.4 This would equate to an 8 ounce glass of water per day containing 8.4 ppm or less of the chemical, for my body weight (the ‘lethal concentration mean-LCt50’ being much higher than this – so below this NOAEL level is considered safe). Thus, in theory, that same glass of water with 10 ppm would prompt observable adverse effects in my physiology. It won’t kill me though, right? That’s great news.

Nonetheless, yes, I will choose to drink the lower 2 ppm dose any day. The dose does make the poison, inside this highly constrained conflation of adverse effect and toxicity.

However, to cough up this statement fur-ball at me, in a serious debate about food and water contaminants, means that you are first, clueless enough to have highly underestimated your opponent and second, don’t really understand toxicology nor adverse effect all that well. It tells all concerned more about you, than it does about me. Yes, this includes the case wherein you hold a PhD. LD50, LCt50, NOAEL and other exculpatory idem existimatis contentions of that ilk are most often cited by lazy science poseurs. These measures do not even begin to bear salience or relevance around the list of 20 different ways in which toxicity can harm our citizens and our family members (Exhibit II below).

No, the dose will not kill me. Lethality, and even Adverse Effects are red herrings. We are discussing toxicity.
The discussion has never been about whether or not the contaminant in the glass of water will hurt me right this moment.

If these stats do not address the questions which our families have intelligently raised about toxins
– then why should our scientists and skeptics not have already raised the same questions?

But Table Salt Had a Higher ‘LD50’ What Happened?

But does the dose actually make the poison? Is that a logical truth? If your child accidentally ingests some rat poison – such measures are absolutely critical. But for you and millions of others, hold on just a second. Here it is 20 years later, two decades of confidently ingesting a NOAEL-safe .5 to 2 ppm diazinon glasses of water, most every day, and suddenly, you’ve gained 100 lbs across 3 years and have had to have both of your knees replaced because an aggressive form of rheumatoid arthritis has kicked in. Your same-age colleagues at the plant fully understand and cover for you. Your orthopedic surgeon is hesitant to undergo the procedure because she wants you to lose 70 lbs first. She is not sure that you will be able to handle the difficulties involved in the surgery with the extra weight. Your spouse feels like he must have done something wrong. He changes his diet in an effort to help out, but to no avail. IBS and diabetes start to creep up periodically. All at a fairly young age. But but but… the LD50 of table salt was higher though!5 Must have been the table salt, and coffee too. It’s always the coffee.

We have an apothegm just for this type of circumstance as well: ‘Luck of the draw’.

OK, in an effort to be truthful when held to public account, social skeptics will admit that we have enough epidemiological data to know that the table salt and coffee did not cause your long term exposure physical ailments after all. They just brought up those red herrings years ago in order to look smarter than you – and because this was what they were told to say. Can you as an experienced skeptic now go back then and contact the study group which set the rat-240d-NOAEL for diazinon, and say “Hey, we might need to examine this with a bit more scientific rigor and follow-up.” The fact is, that I just observed adverse effects from something – and there are only a couple culpable ‘somethings’ which could be considered – a set which includes diazinon, the least likely candidate of which is ‘luck of the draw’ (pseudo-theory). The fact is, that what we really needed were human-30y-NOLTAEL, statistics to be derived from comprehensive community data to begin with. The sad fact however is, that they are rarely if ever done. Nobody wants to find out who had the bullet in a one-bullet firing squad.

And herein resides the rub – we don’t think we need to develop human-30y-NOLTAEL because we already have rat-derived LD50, LCt50 and NOAEL data.

To push for further science might endanger the St. George beachfront property. Better enlist the aid of some, compromised-ethics, fake experts who are smart-but-dumb, with dark teeth. If they don’t have any qualifications, have them call themselves ‘skeptics’. You can hire them cheap, all you have to do is pay their celebrity leaders a pittance, and they will do anything. Ignorance is asset preserving. The science is settled. (Another deadly apothegm of social skepticism)

In the Real World, Acute Lethal Dose is Rarely the Issue

These ethical dilemmas, along with the ‘our pesticide is less toxic than table salt’ baloney, elicits just one simple example problem with ‘the dose makes the poison’ apothegm applied as panacea to the entire issue domain inside toxicology. However, even more compounding in risk, is the specter that, there are at least 17 other toxicity expression vectors, which bear a similar incompatibility to the classic ‘LD50 – dose makes the poison’ paradigm. For most toxicity vectors, those we have understood much better than our 1920’s-minded skeptics – the dose does not make the poison. And you are particularly stupid-to-gullible to believe otherwise.

The safety of glyphosate, the active ingredient in the Roundup weedkiller, has been compared to many things over the years, but the table salt comparison stands out as particularly ridiculous. In fact the state of New York took legal action against Monsanto for false advertising for making this very claim. Monsanto agreed to cease and desist from making this claim, but it is still commonly parroted by aggressive supporters of GMOs and chemical company apologists.

Suffice it to say that no one’s going to intentionally ingest enough salt or glyphosate to immediately die from their exposure, and comparing the LD50 values of chemicals that can have serious health harms other than immediate mortality is so misleading as to be irresponsible.

~ Dr. Nathan Donley, Center for Biological Diversity6

The following pages are available for your use, as you see fit – to partly educate the vulnerable public about what they need to know regarding food/water/medicines toxicology. This is not a case of ‘Dunning-Kruger’ – as toxicology’s application inside this context fails the limits test for application of that ‘fallacy’.7

Such matters are your responsibility as well as your right. If you and your family are getting sick for no reason – raise hell about it. They are just gonna have to put up with us.

However, if you are a professional toxicologist/epidemiologist and wish to make comment/input on the graphics below – I will certainly consider improving them with your help. That would be absolutely appreciated.

Exhibit I

Exhibit II

Appendix

epoché vanguards gnosis

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How to MLA cite this blog post =>

The Ethical Skeptic, “The Apothegm Makes the Poison” The Ethical Skeptic, WordPress, 29 Nov 2018; Web, https://wp.me/p17q0e-8UR

November 29, 2018 Posted by | Agenda Propaganda, Argument Fallacies | , | Leave a comment

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